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Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872323

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending »

Source: Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending : Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2005/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , and Michael Devereux

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860269

Keywords: Ricardian equivalence, regime switching, threshold vector autoregression, inflation, real rates, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation,

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effec...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...

Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output

Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output »

Source: Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output : Further International Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2002/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2002

ISBN: 9781451875485

Keywords: common, European and idiosyncratic components, state-space Models, statistics, correlation, time series, statistic, Model Construction and Estimation, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, t...

Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity

Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity »

Source: Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity : An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components

Volume/Issue: 2001/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Iryna Ivaschenko , and Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451857580

Keywords: Investment grade bonds, corporate spreads, business cycle, GMM estimation, systematic risk, principal components analysis, regime-switching, Markov process, bonds, bond

This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the futur...

The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States

The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States »

Source: The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2002/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Iryna Ivaschenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842524

Keywords: Investment grade bonds, corporate spreads, term structure, real activity, GMM estimation, bonds, bond, random walk, corporate bond, Prices

The term structure of domestic investment grade bond spreads - or corporate spread curve - contains useful information to predict future changes in industrial production, beyond the information already contained in...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data

Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data »

Source: Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data : An Application to Credit Risk

Volume/Issue: 2005/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthew Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862386

Keywords: Markov transition matrix, nonperforming loans, interest coverage, probabilities, probability, probability model, interest coverage ratio, banking, Estimation,

This paper outlines a way to estimate transition matrices for use in credit risk modeling with a decades-old methodology that uses aggregate proportions data. This methodology is ideal for credit-risk applications...

Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model

Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model »

Source: Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model : What is Important and What is Not

Volume/Issue: 2006/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vicente Tuesta , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2006

ISBN: 9781451864373

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, model comparison, exchange rate, real exchange rate, inflation, monetary policy, Bayesian Analysis, Open Economy Macroeconomics, U.s. Dollar,

We use a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model using data for the United States and the euro area, and we perform model comparisons to study the importance of de...