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Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2010/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Cheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455202157.001

ISBN: 9781455202157

Keywords: Implied risk-neutral density functions, market expectations, probability, kurtosis, equation, probability density, standard deviation, Estimation,

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463903497.001

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870244.001

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons »

Volume/Issue: 2003/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855302.001

ISBN: 9781451855302

Keywords: GARCH, high-frequency data, realized volatility, integrated volatility, and asymmetric volatility, forecasting, statistics, sampling, standard deviation, maximum likelihood estimation

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecast...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Source: The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices »

Source: A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

Volume/Issue: 2010/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Cheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202157

Keywords: Implied risk-neutral density functions, market expectations, probability, kurtosis, equation, probability density, standard deviation, Estimation,

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset...

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons »

Source: Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons

Volume/Issue: 2003/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451855302

Keywords: GARCH, high-frequency data, realized volatility, integrated volatility, and asymmetric volatility, forecasting, statistics, sampling, standard deviation, maximum likelihood estimation

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecast...