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Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream

Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream »

Source: Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream : Imputation Techniques and Evaluation Procedures for Cross-Country Time Series

Volume/Issue: 2011/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Weber , and Michaela Denk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455270507

Keywords: Missing or incomplete data, imputation quality, statistical matching, time series, missing data, algorithms, statistical methods, cluster analysis, Estimation, Model Evaluation and Selection

International organizations collect data from national authorities to create multivariate cross-sectional time series for their analyses. As data from countries with not yet well-established statistical systems may...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Source: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...

Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus

Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus »

Source: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus : An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Volume/Issue: 2013/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Mohammad Rahmati

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475531152

Keywords: Civil conflict, conflict recurrence risk, growth, institutions, geography, structural reforms, dynamic panel estimation, post-conflict, real gdp, gdp per capita

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960-2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-g...

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Source: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries »

Source: An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2007/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shanaka Peiris , and Magnus Saxegaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451868456

Keywords: DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, monetary policy rules, monetary fund,

This paper evaluates monetary policy-tradeoffs in low-income countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on data for Mozambique taking into account the sources of major exogenous...

Experience with Budgetary Convergence in the WAEMU

Experience with Budgetary Convergence in the WAEMU »

Source: Experience with Budgetary Convergence in the WAEMU

Volume/Issue: 2002/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Masson , and Ousmane Dore

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2002

ISBN: 9781451853117

Keywords: Convergence, Integration, terms of trade, fiscal balance, tax revenue, History of Thought: Macroeconomics, Hypothesis Testing, Estimation,

This paper reviews the experience of fiscal adjustment undertaken in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries since the entry into force of the 1994 treaty establishing the framework for a reg...

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth »

Source: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

Volume/Issue: 2005/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Norman Loayza , and Romain Ranciere

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2005

ISBN: 9781451861891

Keywords: Growth empirics, pooled mean group estimation, financial volatility, financial intermediation, financial liberalization, banking crises, financial fragility, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

This paper studies the apparent contradictions between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positiv...

Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty

Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty »

Source: Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty : Is Africa Different?

Volume/Issue: 2005/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860375

Keywords: growth regressions, Bayesian model averaging, dynamic panel estimation, debt, probability, samples, debt service, external debt, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Av...

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? »

Source: How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

Volume/Issue: 1999/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hong Liang , C. McDermott , and Paul Cashin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 1999

ISBN: 9781451850284

Keywords: Commodity prices, median-unbiased estimation, shock persistence, price stabilization, time series, export earnings, confidence interval, confidence intervals

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasti...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869101.001

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...