Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 November 1998
Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...