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Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2019/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Plamen Iossifov , and Xuan Fei

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312738.001

ISBN: 9781498312738

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Balance of trade, Trade deficits, Current account, Patterns of trade, Real trade balance adjustment, REER, long-run, trade balance, elasticity

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has...

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2018/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484387740.001

ISBN: 9781484387740

Keywords: Turkey, Europe, Policy uncertainty, economic uncertainty, firm-level, sector-level, investment decisions, employment growth, leverage strategies, diff-in-diff estimation

Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we constr...

Turkey : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2018/110

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353196.002

ISBN: 9781484353196

Keywords: Turkey, Europe

Growth rebounded sharply in 2017, helped by strong policy stimulus in the wake of the 2016 post-coup attempt slump and by favorable external conditions. Although expansionary policies were initially warranted, they...

Turkey : Fiscal Transparency Evaluation »

Volume/Issue: 2017/208

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 July 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484309377.002

ISBN: 9781484309377

Turkey has made considerable strides in enhancing its fiscal transparency practices over the past decade and a half. Since first volunteering for a Fiscal Transparency ROSC1 in 2000, Turkey has substantially improv...

Multi-Country Report : Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Banking-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/145

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 June 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484302996.002

ISBN: 9781484302996

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Bahrain, Djibouti, Europe, Indonesia, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Middle East, Nigeria

This paper presents country experiences with reforms to strengthen regulatory oversight of the Islamic banking sector. Based on the selected country experiences, a number of important lessons and policy options can...

Turkey : Financial Sector Assessment Program: detailed assessment of Observance-Assessment of Observance of the CPMI-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure »

Volume/Issue: 2017/45

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576870.002

ISBN: 9781475576870

Keywords: Europe, Turkey

This paper presents an assessment of observance of the CPMI-IOSCO (Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures-International Organization for Securities Commissions) principles for financial market infrastruct...

Turkey : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision »

Volume/Issue: 2017/46

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576894.002

ISBN: 9781475576894

Keywords: Turkey, Europe

This paper presents an assessment of observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in Turkey. Since the previous assessment conducted in 2011, the Banking Regulation and Supervisory Agency h...

Turkey : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the IAIS Insurance Core Principles »

Volume/Issue: 2017/47

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576917.002

ISBN: 9781475576917

Keywords: Europe, Turkey

This paper presents an assessment of the observance of IAIS (International Association of Insurance Supervisors) insurance core principles in Turkey. During the last five years, the government of Turkey has made a...

Turkey : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2017/32

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574258.002

ISBN: 9781475574258

Keywords: Europe, Turkey

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Turkey has slowed following a strong performance in 2015. Investment is weak amid heightened uncertainty and a sharp deceleration of credit growth. Inflat...

Turkey: Financial Sector Assessment Program : Financial System Stability Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2017/35

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574401.002

ISBN: 9781475574401

Keywords: Turkey, Europe

This report discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Turkey in the area of financial system stability. The assessment identified some important priorities for f...

Turkey : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/33

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574289.002

ISBN: 9781475574289

Keywords: Turkey, Europe

This Selected Issues paper examines the new private pension automatic enrollment provisions in Turkey. The newly enacted automatic enrollment provisions have several advantages relative to the current voluntary pri...

Turkey : 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2016/104

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337776.002

ISBN: 9781484337776

Keywords: investment, debt, monetary fund, monetary policy, international investment

This paper discusses key issues related to Turkey's economy. Economic growth of Turkey continues to show resilience despite several shocks. Growth remains based on domestic demand, in turn, supported by accommodati...

Turkey : Selected Issue »

Volume/Issue: 2016/105

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338209.002

ISBN: 9781484338209

Keywords: saving, savings, private saving, households, household

This paper discusses key issues of Turkey's economy including private savings in Turkey, increase in the minimum wage for 2016, and nonfinancial corporate sector debt in Turkey. Over the last decade and half, Turke...

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2016/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , and Agustin Roitman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513578262.001

ISBN: 9781513578262

Keywords: Non-Linearities, exchange rate, depreciation, inflation targeting, exchange rate movements, Models with Panel Data, General, All Countries,, Exchange rate pass-through, Foreign exchange

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate f...

Floating with a Load of FX Debt? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/284

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tatsiana Kliatskova , and Uffe Mikkelsen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513543307.001

ISBN: 9781513543307

Keywords: FX interventions, Balance sheet effects, exchange, exchange rate, currency, debt, International Lending and Debt Problems, All Countries,

Countries with de jure floating exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to allow their currencies to float freely in practice. One reason why countries may wish to limit exchange rate volatility is potential nega...

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy : Nowcasting an Emerging Market »

Volume/Issue: 2015/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhat Solmaz , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513598987.001

ISBN: 9781513598987

Keywords: Nowcasting, Bayesian estimation, VAR, Emerging Market, economy, domestic economy, risk, economies, external factors, Bayesian Analysis

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial sho...

Contingent Liabilities from Banks : How to Track Them? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , and Yin Liao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513568560.001

ISBN: 9781513568560

Keywords: bank, banks, banking, risk, Government Policy and Regulation, All Countries,

In this paper, we develop a methodology to assess potential losses to the government that could arise from bank failures. The approach is intended to be simple, parsimonious, and used in real time. It generates an...

What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diana Ayala Pena , Milan Nedeljkovic , and Christian Saborowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513579757.001

ISBN: 9781513579757

Keywords: bond, markets, debt, market, General, General, General,

This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. Duri...

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention : A Panel Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2015/130

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Noemie Lisack , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514864.001

ISBN: 9781513514864

Keywords: exchange rate, exchange, exchange rates, central bank,

We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an...

Taxing Fossil Fuels under Speculative Storage »

Volume/Issue: 2014/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Semih Tumen , Deren Unalmis , Ibrahim Unalmis , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475573688.001

ISBN: 9781475573688

Keywords: Fossil fuel, speculative storage, DSGE, energy, fossil, fuel, renewable energy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

This paper investigates the mechanisms through which environmental taxes on fossil fuel usage can affect the main macroeconomic variables in the short-run. We concentrate on a particular mechanism: speculative stor...

Turkey : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/329

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484304501.002

ISBN: 9781484304501

Keywords: inflation, deficit, monetary fund, current account deficit

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Turkey's economy has grown on average by 6 percent annually since 2010, but this has come at the expense of a large external deficit, making the economy sensitive t...

Turkey : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/330

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498398077.002

ISBN: 9781498398077

Keywords: national savings, current account, consumption, deficit

This Selected Issues paper examines the external imbalance situation in Turkey. Turkey's current account deficit is expected to remain elevated at about 5.5 to 6 percent of GDP through 2019. Reducing the deficit to...

Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending »

Volume/Issue: 2014/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Galina Hale , and Camelia Minoiu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361443.001

ISBN: 9781484361443

Keywords: syndicated loans, global financial crisis, BIS international banking statistics, Dealogic Loan Analytics, banking, bank assets, financial crisis, bank capital, General, Globalization: Finance,

We examine the composition and drivers of cross-border bank lending between 1995 and 2012, distinguishing between syndicated and non-syndicated loans. We show that on-balance sheet syndicated loan exposures account...

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Volatilidad en los mercados emergentes : Lecciones de mayo de 2013 »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534459.006

ISBN: 9781513534459

Keywords: Mercados emergentes, volatilidad de los mercados de capital internacionales, flujos de capital, política monetaria, política macroprudencial, Estados Unidos, países desarrollados

Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 20...

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage »

Volume/Issue: 2014/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anton Korinek , and Alp Simsek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498370943.001

ISBN: 9781498370943

Keywords: Leverage, liquidity trap, zero lower bound, aggregate demand externality, efficiency, aggregate demand, inflation, real interest rate, contractionary monetary policy, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to f...

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs »

Volume/Issue: 2014/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Furlanetto , Paolo Gelain , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498305327.001

ISBN: 9781498305327

Keywords: Business cycles, Economic growth, Econometric models, Potential output, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Financial Frictions, Optimal Monetary Policy, Output Gap, inflation

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial...

Russian Federation : Fiscal Transparency Evaluation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/134

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498348058.002

ISBN: 9781498348058

Keywords: fiscal reports, fiscal statistics, fiscal reporting

This paper discusses key findings of the pilot Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the Russian Federation. Most aspects of Russia's fiscal reporting and budgeting practices are in line with good or advanced practice...

Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2014/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Pablo Medina Guzman , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484302873.001

ISBN: 9781484302873

Keywords: Welfare Analysis, inflation, reserve requirement, inflation targeting, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics, Welfare Analysis.,

We study interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies in a model with nominal and financial frictions. The latter derive from a financial sector that provides credit and liquidity services that lead t...

Turkey : Selected Issues Paper »

Volume/Issue: 2013/364

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475538854.002

ISBN: 9781475538854

Keywords: monetary policy, monetary fund, monetary framework, central bank

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the capital flows in Turkey. The empirical analysis in this paper uses exchange market pressure index to identify the determinants of capital flows to Turkey. It is observed that...

Turkey : Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/363

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484303627.002

ISBN: 9781484303627

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, external debt, central bank, external financing

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Turkish economy achieved a welcome reduction of imbalances in 2012. In 2013, growth has accelerated significantly on the back of a monetary and fiscal policy st...

Russian Federation : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/311

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343470.002

ISBN: 9781484343470

Keywords: exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate regime, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, Exchange rate regimes],

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on exchange rate volatility in Russian Federation. Russia has seen an increase in exchange rate volatility during the past...

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe : A Global VAR Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2013/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yan Sun , Frigyes Heinz , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345474.001

ISBN: 9781484345474

Keywords: Spillover, Global VAR, regional model, macro-financial linkages, emerging Europe, gdp growth, real gdp, inflation, growth rate, long-term interest rates

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and...

External Liabilities and Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2013/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Catão , and Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484315910.001

ISBN: 9781484315910

Keywords: International Investment Positions, Current Account Imbalances, Foreign Exchange Reserves, net external debt, net debt, current account balance, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Lending and Debt Problems, Foreign Exchange Reserves.,

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ra...

Fiscal Sustainability : A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed »

Volume/Issue: 2013/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381991.001

ISBN: 9781484381991

Keywords: Intertemporal solvency, tax smoothing, debt stabilization, fiscal rule, stochastic simulation, fiscal adjustment, budget constraint, Deficit, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA sho...

Too Cold, Too Hot, or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe »

Volume/Issue: 2013/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adolfo Barajas , Thorsten Beck , Era Dabla-Norris , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484351086.001

ISBN: 9781484351086

Keywords: Financial Development, Financial Sector Policies, Benchmarking, financial system, financial systems, financial sector, financial reform, stock market, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper introduces the concept of the financial possibility frontier as a constrained optimum level of financial development to gauge the relative performance of financial systems across the globe. This frontier...

Factors Influencing Emerging Market Central Banks' Decision to Intervene in Foreign Exchange Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2013/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthew Malloy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475532814.001

ISBN: 9781475532814

Keywords: exchange rate, reserve adequacy, foreign exchange reserves, exchange reserves

Using panel data for 15 economies from 2001-12, I identify determinants of central bank foreign exchange intervention in emerging markets ('EMs') with flexible to moderately managed exchange rates. Similar to other...

Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2013/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475548716.001

ISBN: 9781475548716

Keywords: Dynamic general equilibrium, Indivisible labor, Output volatility, Service sector, Structural transformation, employment share, labor productivities, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

This paper finds a negative relationship between the employment share of the service sector and the volatility of aggregate output in the OECD-after controlling for the level of financial development. This result r...

Banks' Foreign Credit Exposures and Borrowers' Rollover Risks Measurement, Evolution and Determinants »

Volume/Issue: 2013/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475544602.001

ISBN: 9781475544602

Keywords: Systemic risks, banking system, international, contagion, vulnerabilities, banking, claims, banking systems, banking statistics, International Lending and Debt Problems

The recent crises highlighted the role of cross-border banking linkages. This paper proposes two new measures for better capturing creditor banking systems' foreign credit exposures and borrower countries' reliance...

Turkey : 2012 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/338

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475545067.002

ISBN: 9781475545067

Keywords: current account, inflation, external debt, current account deficit, external financing

This report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses the macroeconomic conditions after the 2008 global financial crisis. After two years of rapid growth, the economy has slowed and imbalances are...

Turkey : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2012/339

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475586572.002

ISBN: 9781475586572

Keywords: inflation, monetary fund, central bank, inflationary pressures

This Selected Issues paper on Turkey discusses the new monetary framework adopted by the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Instead of relying on one interest rate as inflation-targeting, the CBRT resorted...

Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2012/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): F. Gulcin Ozkan , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475551167.001

ISBN: 9781475551167

Keywords: domestic economy, exchange rate regime, trade openness, General,

The recent global financial crisis was the first in recent history that was triggered by problems in the financial system of the mature economies. Existing work on financial crisis in emerging market countries, how...

The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests »

Volume/Issue: 2012/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Christian Schmieder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475519051.001

ISBN: 9781475519051

Keywords: Testing, Cross-border, banking, Stability, Ring-fencing, Subsidiaries, capital adequacy, bank data, banking system, International Lending and Debt Problems

The recent crisis has spurred the use of stress tests as a (crisis) management and early warning tool. However, a weakness is that they omit potential risks embedded in the banking groups' geographical structures b...

On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage »

Volume/Issue: 2012/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deren Unalmis , Ibrahim Unalmis , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475586367.001

ISBN: 9781475586367

Keywords: oil storage, oil price fluctuations, oil demand, oil supply shocks speculative oil demand, sticky-price DSGE model, inflation, price fluctuations, oil prices, nominal interest rate, oil demand and oil supply shocks speculative oil demand,

Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of...

Turkey : Financial System Stability Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2012/261

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510300.002

ISBN: 9781475510300

Keywords: banking, banking sector, banking system, banking law

The assessment is a featured report of Turkey's credit boom in the middle of 2011. The country faced the global crisis successfully because of earlier significant capital buffers. Overall, the country was healthy f...

Public Debt Dynamics : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks »

Volume/Issue: 2012/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fuad Hasanov , and Reda Cherif

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510553.001

ISBN: 9781475510553

Keywords: VAR, impulse responses, debt ratio, debt dynamics, primary deficit, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet,...

Environmental Tax Reform : Principles from Theory and Practice to Date »

Volume/Issue: 2012/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ian Parry , John Norregaard , and Dirk Heine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505283.001

ISBN: 9781475505283

Keywords: design principles, externalities, fuel taxes, country evaluation, environmental tax, tax systems, tax reform, tax system, Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy, Energy: Government Policy,

This paper recommends a system of upstream taxes on fossil fuels, combined with refunds for downstream emissions capture, to reduce carbon and local pollution emissions. Motor fuel taxes should also account for con...

Russian Federation : Detailed Assessment of Observance of IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/53

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502213.002

ISBN: 9781475502213

Keywords: market participants, insider trading, securities law, prudential supervision, securities regulation

This assessment reviews the regulatory framework in place for the oversight of the capital markets of the Russian Federation as of June 2011. The Russian securities markets, in particular, have been volatile, refle...

Two Targets, Two Instruments : Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2012/1

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503623.006

ISBN: 9781475503623

Keywords: Emerging markets, Exchange rate policy, Central banks, Inflation targeting, Foreign exchange intervention, Monetary policy, exchange rate, inflation, central bank, foreign exchange

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief an...

Turkey : 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplements; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2012/16

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463934484.002

ISBN: 9781463934484

Keywords: monetary fund, bond, central bank, financial intermediation

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Turkish economy continued to grow strongly through the first half of 2011, reaping the benefits of institutional reforms and revamped policy frameworks implemen...

Operational Risk Management and Business Continuity Planning for Modern State Treasuries »

Volume: 11

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504705.005

ISBN: 9781475504705

Keywords: business continuity, disaster recovery, business continuity and disaster recovery plan, operational risk, operational risk management, treasury operations, business, information, commercial banks

This technical note and manual addresses the following main issues: 1. What is operational risk management and how this should be applied to treasury operations. 2. What is business continuity and disaster reco...

The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials : Financial Repression or Income Catch-Up? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Shabunina , Julio Escolano , and Jaejoon Woo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463924553.001

ISBN: 9781463924553

Keywords: interest rate-growth differential, debt dynamics, dynamic efficiency, income catch-up, financial repression, inflation, government debt, real interest rate, private credit, Money And Interest Rates

The interest rate-growth differential (IRGD) shows a marked correlation with GDP per capita. It has been on average around 1 percentage point for large advanced economies during 1999-2008; but below -7 percentage p...

Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2011/192

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elif Arbatli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462306251.001

ISBN: 9781462306251

Keywords: FDI, Emerging Market Economies, Economic Policies, direct investment, foreign direct investment, corporate tax, corporate tax rates, International Factor Movements And International Business,

This paper investigates the determinants of FDI inflows to emerging market economies, concentrating on the effects of economic policies. The empirical analysis also addresses the role of external push factors and o...

The Behavior of Conventional and Islamic Bank Deposit Returns in Malaysia and Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2011/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Joshua Charap , and Serhan Cevik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455293704.001

ISBN: 9781455293704

Keywords: Interest rates, Islamic banks, causality, time-varying volatility correlation, bank deposit, interest, balance sheet, debt

This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data fr...

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2011/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455270484.001

ISBN: 9781455270484

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE models, emerging economies, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, interest rates, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the...

In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/116

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , H. Takizawa , and David Hauner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455262397.001

ISBN: 9781455262397

Keywords: Exchange rate models, exchange rate, exchange rates, current account, interest rate, exchange rate regime, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated wi...

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2011/10

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Mahmood Pradhan , Ravi Balakrishnan , Reza Baqir , Geoffrey Heenan , Sylwia Nowak , Ceyda Oner , and Sanjaya Panth

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 April 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463935122.006

ISBN: 9781463935122

Keywords: Emerging markets, Capital flows, Macroeconomic policies, Macroprudential policies, capital inflows, bond, bond yields, bonds,

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief an...

Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2010/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Jay Surti , Faisal Ahmed , Michael Papaioannou , and Guilherme Pedras

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210879.001

ISBN: 9781455210879

Keywords: Public Debt Structure, debt management, public debt, debt managers, bonds, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

This paper explores the relationship between the level and management of public debt and financial stability, and explains the channels through which the two are interlinked. It suggests that the broader implicatio...

Bank Lending in Turkey : Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2010/233

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Burcu Aydin , and Deniz Igan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209330.001

ISBN: 9781455209330

Keywords: panel data, banking, inflation, bank lending, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

The period following the 2000-01 crisis was marked by a successful disinflation program sustained through inflation targeting and fiscal discipline in Turkey. This paper studies the impact of monetary and fiscal po...

Turkey : Staff Report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation and Post: Program Monitoring-Supplementary Information; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion »

Volume/Issue: 2010/278

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455206858.002

ISBN: 9781455206858

Keywords: international monetary fund, budget, fiscal rule, article

On the eve of the global financial crisis, the Turkish economy had just concluded a six-year growth surge, spurred by policy reforms and favorable external and domestic conditions. Turkish GDP was hit hard by the o...

External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis : What is Different This Time? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): F. Gulcin Ozkan , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201419.001

ISBN: 9781455201419

Keywords: entrepreneurs, domestic economy, entrepreneur, open economy, domestic goods, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance, macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

This paper develops a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis to a small open economy. We find that economies hit by a sudden stop arising from financial distress in the...

Important Elements for Inflation Targeting for Emerging Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2010/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inci Ötker , and Charles Freedman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200726.001

ISBN: 9781455200726

Keywords: inflation, central bank, rate of inflation, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data),

This is the fifth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines whether certain conditions have to be...

Staff Guidance Note on the Use of Fund Resources for Budget Support »

Volume/Issue: 2010/028

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498337649.007

ISBN: 9781498337649

Keywords: Balance of payments need, Concessional aid, Deficit financing, Fund facilities, Fund policies, General Resources Account, Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Use of Fund resources, Central bank independence, Central banks

This paper proposes that the Fund establish an administered account and a subaccount under the Framework Instrument for Selected Fund Activities (the 'SFA'), to enhance the new external financing architecture for c...

Finanzas & Desarrollo, abril 2010 »

Volume/Issue: 47/1

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 April 2010

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451956795.022

ISBN: 9781451956795

En 'Gol a favor o en contra: Cuando los deportes refuerzan la economía' se estudia por qué los países compiten por albergar los eventos deportivos más costosos del mundo. Asimismo, en una serie de artículos titulad...

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets' Local Currency Bond Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2010/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982602.001

ISBN: 9781451982602

Keywords: Emerging Market Economies, bond, bond yields, government bond, government bond yields,

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data anal...

Finance & Development, March 2010 »

Volume/Issue: 47/1

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 March 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451922257.022

ISBN: 9781451922257

Keywords: democracy, political economy, international monetary fund, dictatorship, financial intermediation

Prize or Penalty: When Sports Help Economies Score" looks at why countries vie to host the world's most costly sporting events. And, in a series of articles on "After the Crisis," we discuss why some countries were...

Bank Credit During the 2008 Financial Crisis : A Cross-Country Comparison »

Volume/Issue: 2010/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ari Aisen , and Michael Franken

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451963120.001

ISBN: 9781451963120

Keywords: credit boom, bust cycles, money market, banking, banking system,

This paper empirically estimates the main determinants of bank credit growth during the 2008 financial crisis. Using a sample covering over 80 countries, this paper finds that larger bank credit booms prior to the...

Optimal Monetary Policy with Overlapping Generations of Policymakers »

Volume/Issue: 2010/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maral Shamloo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451962642.001

ISBN: 9781451962642

Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, Commitment, Discretion, Optimal Monetary Policy, inflation, monetary authority, monetary economics,

In this paper I study the effect of imperfect central bank commitment on inflationary outcomes. I present a model in which the monetary authority is a committee that consists of members who serve overlapping, finit...

Responding to Banking Crises : Lessons From Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2010/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451962239.001

ISBN: 9781451962239

Keywords: banking crisis policies, banking crisis cost, banking, banking crisis, deposit insurance, recapitalization,

A common legacy of banking crises is a large increase in government debt, as fiscal resources are used to shore up the banking system. Do crisis response strategies that commit more fiscal resources lower the econo...

On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations »

Volume/Issue: 2009/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deren Unalmis , Ibrahim Unalmis , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001

ISBN: 9781451874303

Keywords: Oil Price Fluctuations, Oil Demand and Oil Supply Shocks, Precautionary Demand Shock, Small Open Economy, DSGE Models, oil supply, oil demand, oil market, aggregate demand,

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggreg...

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2009/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo , and Heiko Hesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873771.001

ISBN: 9781451873771

Keywords: Global Financial Crises, Subprime Crisis, Volatility, Solvency, Markov-Switching, financial institutions, financial system, contagion, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov r...

Turkey : Report on Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) »

Volume/Issue: 2009/286

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 September 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451838251.002

ISBN: 9781451838251

Keywords: debt, government finance, balance of payments

This report examines the Observance of Standards and Codes on the Data Module for Turkey. Progress in data quality reflects the authorities' commitment to set statistical development on a high and sustainable path,...

One Money, One Market-A Revised Benchmark »

Volume/Issue: 2009/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Henn , and Theo Eicher

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873337.001

ISBN: 9781451873337

Keywords: Preferencial Trade Agreements, Gravity Equation, Multilateral Resistance, trade effects, equation, trade effect, trade agreements,

The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in measuring the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Rose's (2000) initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade and created a literature in...

International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions »

Volume/Issue: 2009/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , Sweta Saxena , and Ugo Panizza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873306.001

ISBN: 9781451873306

Keywords: Growth, Recession, Rebound, Output loss, exchange rate, recessions, exchange rate regime,

Although negative shocks have persistent effects on output on average, this paper shows that macroeconomic policies and the structure of the economy can influence the speed of recovery and mitigate the persistence...

Country Experiences with the Introduction and Implementation of Inflation Targeting »

Volume/Issue: 2009/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inci Ötker , and Charles Freedman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873085.001

ISBN: 9781451873085

Keywords: country experiences, monetary policy implementation, central bank, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data),

This is the tenth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled, "On Implementing Full- Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It describes the experiences of a number of cou...

Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2009/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872941.001

ISBN: 9781451872941

Keywords: bond pricing, macroeconomic news, survey data, news spillovers, high-frequency data, news, bond, emerging market bonds,

This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surpr...

Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets During the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2009/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nathaniel Frank , and Heiko Hesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872514.001

ISBN: 9781451872514

Keywords: Subprime Crisis, Solvency, GARCH, bond, stock market, financial institutions,

In this paper potential financial linkages between liquidity and bank solvency measures in advanced economies and emerging market (EM) bond and stock markets are analyzedduring the latest crisis. A multivariate GAR...

The Persistence of Capital Account Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2009/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mauro Mecagni , Ruben Atoyan , and David Hofman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872507.001

ISBN: 9781451872507

Keywords: capital account crises, persistence, capital flows, private capital flows,

This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their...

Boletín del FMI Vol.37, No.10 octubre 2008 »

Volume/Issue: 37/10

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 March 2009

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451943832.023

ISBN: 9781451943832

Reuniones Anuales, Comunicado del CMFI, Fondos soberanos de inversión, Crisis financiera mundial, Metodologías contables, Impacto del estrés financiero, Crisis hipotecaria, El futuro de Fannie y Freddie, Análisis d...

IMF Survey, Volume 37, Issue 13 »

Volume/Issue: 37/10

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451968026.023

ISBN: 9781451968026

Keywords: financial system, financial institutions, financial markets, financial crisis, interest rates

Annual Meetings, IMFC Communiqué, Global Financial Stability Report, Sovereign Wealth Fund Principles, Global Financial Crisis, Fair Value Accounting, Financial Stress and Downturns, Subprime Crisis, What Next for...

Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence : What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/41

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edda Zoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871890.001

ISBN: 9781451871890

Keywords: Price Convergence, price inflation, price level, inflation response,

This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that...

In Search of WTO Trade Effects : Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly »

Volume/Issue: 2009/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Theo Eicher , and Christian Henn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871784.001

ISBN: 9781451871784

Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreements, Multilateral Resistance, Country-Pair Fixed Effects, Omitted Variable Bias, trade creation, trade effects, trade agreements, trade flows, equation,

The literature measuring the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) and WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose's (2004) seminal paper reports a range of specifications th...

Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy Options in Emerging and Developing Countries-A Cross Regional Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2009/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inci Ötker , David Vávra , Francisco Vazquez , Luis Jácome , Karl Habermeier , Kotaro Ishi , Alessandro Giustiniani , and Turgut Kisinbay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871487.001

ISBN: 9781451871487

Keywords: oil price shocks, food price shocks, policy responses, central bank, aggregate demand,

This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation devel...

Charges and Maturities-Proposals for Reform »

Volume/Issue: 2008/072

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498333887.007

ISBN: 9781498333887

Keywords: Access limits, Charges, Fund facilities, General Resources Account, Rate of charge, Repurchases, Safeguards, Use of Fund resources, Access to international capital markets, International financial markets

This paper focuses on two key features of the financial terms and maturities of high access to the Fund's General Resources Account (GRA): surcharges and time-based repurchase expectations. Surcharges, which togeth...

Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2008/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871098.001

ISBN: 9781451871098

Keywords: inflation, real rates, real interest rate, Marginal Product of Capital,

The Turkish economy is typically characterized as having particularly high real interest rates. Fundamental considerations, such as high growth rates or high returns to capital, do not provide a satisfactory resolu...

The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2008/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Laeven , and Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871081.001

ISBN: 9781451871081

Keywords: banking, liquidity support, banking system, deposit insurance, bank restructuring

In episodes of significant banking distress or perceived systemic risk to the financial system, policymakers have often opted for issuing blanket guarantees on bank liabilities to stop or avoid widespread bank runs...

Turkey : Seventh Review and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey. »

Volume/Issue: 2008/272

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 August 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451838244.002

ISBN: 9781451838244

Keywords: debt, public sector, interest, central bank, external debt

This paper discusses key findings of the Seventh Review and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Turkey. Macroeconomic developments have become less favorable since the last review in May 2007....

Foreign Aid and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2008/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stephen Turnovsky , Serpil Tekin , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870626.001

ISBN: 9781451870626

Keywords: real exchange rate, welfare analysis, exchange rate, capital stock, capital markets, capital intensity,

A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, untied aid has no longrun...

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance »

Volume/Issue: 2008/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870022.001

ISBN: 9781451870022

Keywords: sudden stop, country insurance, optimal reserves, global game, probability, short-term debt, calibration, current account, reserve accumulation,

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the glo...

Fiscal Coverage in the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia : Current Situation and a Way Forward »

Volume/Issue: 2008/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daria Zakharova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869712.001

ISBN: 9781451869712

Keywords: Fiscal coverage, public enterprises, fiscal risks, fiscal statistics, fiscal policy, fiscal accounts, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government,

This paper reviews some broad principles of fiscal coverage, building on cross-country experience. It discusses the level of coverage that would be appropriate to conduct good quality fiscal analysis, while strikin...