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Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board  Executive Board Meeting: December 10, 2020

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Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board Executive Board Meeting: December 10, 2020 »

Volume/Issue: 2021/001

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566542.007

ISBN: 9781513566542

As the COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold, uncertainty remains exceptionally high. The Fund has provided extraordinary financial support as well as timely analysis and policy advice during the first phase of the c...

Arab Republic of Egypt
			: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt

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Arab Republic of Egypt : First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt »

Volume/Issue: 2021/007

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566214.002

ISBN: 9781513566214

Keywords: Public debt, Revenue administration, External debt, Budget planning and preparation, COVID-19 , ISCR, CR, consumer price index inflation, consumer price inflation, internal audit mechanism

The growth impact of the COVID-19 crisis has so far been less severe than expected, as strong consumption helped offset weak tourism and investment. Measures taken to address the health and social needs and support...

Central African Republic
			: Technical Assistance Report-Governance Diagnostic Report

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Central African Republic : Technical Assistance Report-Governance Diagnostic Report »

Volume/Issue: 2021/005

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566139.002

ISBN: 9781513566139

Keywords: Corruption, Tax administration core functions, Customs administration core functions, Civil service, Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), ISCR, CR, organic law, government website, CAR authorities

The gradual return to peace in the Central African Republic (CAR) promises stronger and more equitable growth. Nonetheless, the country faces serious constraints with a security situation that remains vulnerable an...

Djibouti
			: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics

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Djibouti : Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2021/004

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566009.002

ISBN: 9781513566009

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Balance of payments statistics, External sector statistics, Transportation, Customs unions, ISCR, CR, balance of payments survey, ANPI data, balance of payments compiler

An external sector statistics (ESS) mission visited Djibouti from January 26-30, 2020. This was the fourth mission under the JSA/AFR project to improve ESS in 17 Francophone African countries. The mission found tha...

Mali
			: Request for Second Tranche of Debt Service Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust-Press Release; and Staff Report

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Mali : Request for Second Tranche of Debt Service Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust-Press Release; and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2021/003

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513565996.002

ISBN: 9781513565996

Keywords: Debt service, Debt relief, Public debt, COVID-19 , Health care, ISCR, CR, IMF lending tracker, tranche of debt service relief, eligible debt service

The COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 coup d'état have disrupted more than half a decade of strong economic performance, during which growth averaged 5 percent.1 Growth is projected to decline from 5 percent to...

Morocco
			: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco

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Morocco : 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco »

Volume/Issue: 2021/002

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513565958.002

ISBN: 9781513565958

Keywords: Public debt, COVID-19 , Credit, Loans, External debt, ISCR, CR, vaccination campaign, vaccine dose, draft budget law

As in many other countries in the world, the pandemic has exerted a heavy toll on Morocco's population. Its economy has also been hit by a severe drought that affected agriculture output. The authorities' prompt re...

Rwanda
			: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director  and  Staff Representative for Rwanda

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Rwanda : Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director and Staff Representative for Rwanda »

Volume/Issue: 2021/001

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513565927.002

ISBN: 9781513565927

Keywords: Public debt, COVID-19 , Debt sustainability analysis, Fiscal risks, External debt, ISCR, CR, IT system, assessment of a reform target, staff appraisal

The COVID-19 pandemic is having an adverse impact on Rwanda's economy, despite a sizeable policy response. Output in 2020 is projected to contract by 0.2 percent, compared to an 8 percent increase expected pre-pand...

Ecuador
			: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador

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Ecuador : First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador »

Volume/Issue: 2020/325

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513565743.002

ISBN: 9781513565743

Keywords: Public debt, Oil, Credit, Oil prices, Fiscal stance, ISCR, CR, upside risk, EFF arrangement, procurement procedure

On September 30, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a 27-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with exceptional access (SDR 4,615 million, 661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) to help Ec...

The Case for Depositor Preference

The Case for Depositor Preference »

Volume/Issue: 2020/002

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): Marc Dobler , Ender Emre , Alessandro Gullo , and Deeksha Kale

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557397.005

ISBN: 9781513557397

Keywords: Deposit insurance, Bank deposits, Bank resolution framework, Bank resolution, Financial sector stability, TNM, depositor preference, preference arrangement, deposit insurance limit, depositor confidence

This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: advantages and disadvantages of different types of depositor preference, international best practice and experience in adopting depositor prefer...

Euro Area Policies
			: 2020 Consultation on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries

Euro Area Policies : 2020 Consultation on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/324

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513565668.002

ISBN: 9781513565668

Keywords: Labor, Inflation, Fiscal policy, Credit, Income, ISCR, CR, EU leader, recovery package, EU emission reduction goal

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe socio-economic dislocations and hardship. Supported by an unprecedented policy response and by the easing of lockdown measures as the infection rate moderated, the euro area...

How to Set Up A Cash Buffer
			: A Practical Guide to Developing and Implementing a Cash Buffer Policy

How to Set Up A Cash Buffer : A Practical Guide to Developing and Implementing a Cash Buffer Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/004

Series: IMF How To Notes

Author(s): Yasemin Hurcan , Emre Balibek , and Fato? Koç

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563848.061

ISBN: 9781513563848

Keywords: Government cash forecasting, Currencies, Government cash management, Government debt management, Treasury Single Account, FADHTN, HTN, cash balance, opportunity cost, annual debt service

Maintaining a cash buffer has emerged as a risk management tool for government cash and debt management. During budget execution, there is considerable cash flow volatility and timing mismatches concerning revenue...

How to Develop A Framework for the Investment of Temporary Government Cash Surpluses

How to Develop A Framework for the Investment of Temporary Government Cash Surpluses »

Volume/Issue: 2020/003

Series: IMF How To Notes

Author(s): Israel Fainboim Yaker , Sandeep Saxena , and Mike Williams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563824.061

ISBN: 9781513563824

Keywords: Currencies, Government cash management, Government cash forecasting, Money markets, Credit risk, FADHTN, HTN, cash manager, surplus cash, cash surplus

Well-developed cash management aims to improve government operational efficiency and facilitates better service delivery by ensuring liquidity to meet payment obligations as they fall due. Liquidity, however, comes...

Cote d'Ivoire
			: Seventh and Eighth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire : Seventh and Eighth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d'Ivoire »

Volume/Issue: 2020/321

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564814.002

ISBN: 9781513564814

Keywords: Public debt, External debt, Revenue administration, Credit, Debt sustainability, ISCR, CR, EFF arrangement, revenue setback, summary debt service table

Prior to the COVID crisis, Côte d'Ivoire had established a strong track record of economic policies, although domestic revenue mobilization has disappointed. The authorities reacted swiftly to the pandemic, support...

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda »

Volume/Issue: 2020/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jan Vlcek , Mikhail Pranovich , Patrick Hitayezu , Bruno Mwenese , and Christian Nyalihama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564630.001

ISBN: 9781513564630

Keywords: Inflation, Food prices, Exchange rates, Central bank policy rate, Real exchange rates, Rwanda, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Quarterly Projection Model, Monetary Policy, Managed Exchange Rate

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-l...

Georgia
			: Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia

Georgia : Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia »

Volume/Issue: 2020/322

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564845.002

ISBN: 9781513564845

Keywords: Loans, Public debt, External debt, COVID-19 , Credit, ISCR, CR, inflation expectation, Executive Board discussion, IMF Deputy managing director

Georgia's performance under the Extended Arrangement has been positive, but the country is now facing a pronounced economic slowdown. Domestic and external demand remain weak, and service sector activity remains sl...

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
			: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2020/323

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564876.002

ISBN: 9781513564876

Keywords: Financial soundness indicators, Financial statements, Commercial banks, Personal income, Foreign currency exposure, ISCR, CR, FSI Guide, report form, asset classification

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Statistics Department (STA) provided technical assistance (TA) on financial soundness indicators (FSI) to the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) during June 15-July 10, 2020....

United Kingdom
			: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom

United Kingdom : 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom »

Volume/Issue: 2020/320

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564777.002

ISBN: 9781513564777

Keywords: Labor, Public debt, Fiscal policy, Inflation, Expenditure, ISCR, CR, NI Protocol, draft UK, bank dividend payment

The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth...

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic »

Volume/Issue: 2020/292

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Can Sever , Rohit Goel , Dimitris Drakopoulos , and Evan Papageorgiou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564661.001

ISBN: 9781513564661

Keywords: Bond yields, Yield curve, Central bank policy rate, Stock markets, Currencies, COVID-19, pandemic, asset purchase program, quantitative easing, bonds

The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcement...

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings »

Volume/Issue: 2020/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564548.001

ISBN: 9781513564548

Keywords: Climate change, Credit ratings, International reserves, Credit, Emerging and frontier financial markets, vulnerability, resilience, credit ratings, WP, climate change vulnerability

Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic...

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures »

Volume/Issue: 2020/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564753.001

ISBN: 9781513564753

Keywords: Asset prices, Fiscal space, COVID-19 , Stock markets, Fiscal stance, stock prices, event study, exit strategy, WP, government support

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdra...

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India »

Volume/Issue: 2020/291

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bhupal Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513552514.001

ISBN: 9781513552514

Keywords: Housing prices, Housing, Loans, Asset prices, Mortgages, bank credit, macroprudential policies, WP, house price, LTV ratio

This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data...

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/287

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564654.001

ISBN: 9781513564654

Keywords: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Debt burden, Currencies, Corporate investment, Corporate debt, leverage, debt overhang, fixed investment, firm-level

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across...

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helene Poirson Ward , Nathan Porter , Itai Agur , Jiaqian Chen , Johannes Eugster , Stefan Laseen , Jeta Menkulasi , Kenji Moriyama , Celine Rochon , Katsiaryna Svirydzenka , Camilo Tovar Mora , Zhongxia Zhang , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564562.001

ISBN: 9781513564562

Keywords: Central bank policy rate, Exchange rates, Inflation, Exchange rate flexibility, Exchange rate arrangements, Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, policy transmission and effectiveness, macroprudential policy, capital flow management measures

Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs hav...

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/289

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hans Weisfeld , Irineu de Carvalho Filho , Fabio Comelli , Rahul Giri , Klaus-Peter Hellwig , Chengyu Huang , Fei Liu , Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz , Alexis Mayer Cirkel , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564609.001

ISBN: 9781513564609

Keywords: Inflation, Financial crises, Banking crises, Early warning systems, Commodity prices, crisis prediction, machine learning, low-income countries, WP, inflation crisis

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss r...

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown »

Volume/Issue: 2020/294

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sophia Chen , and Do Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564647.001

ISBN: 9781513564647

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Credit default swap, Credit, Financial statements, Financial crises, Credit constraint, Financial crisis, Firm size, Intangibles, Producvitity

We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged...

Sovereign Debt Standstills

Sovereign Debt Standstills »

Volume/Issue: 2020/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , and Cesar Sosa Padilla

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564531.001

ISBN: 9781513564531

Keywords: Debt relief, Securities markets, Debt burden, Asset prices, Personal income, Standstill, Haircuts, COVID-19, Default, Debt Overhang

As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of sta...

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data »

Volume/Issue: 2020/284

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diego Cerdeiro , and Andras Komaromi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564746.001

ISBN: 9781513564746

Keywords: Imports, Spillovers, Plurilateral trade, Foreign currency exposure, COVID-19 , lockdowns, trade, supply chains., WP, lockdown exposure

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (l...

Honduras
			: Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras

Honduras : Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras »

Volume/Issue: 2020/319

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564166.002

ISBN: 9781513564166

Keywords: Loans, Credit, Arrears, Currencies, Public sector, ISCR, CR, climate change risk mitigation spending, MDB project support, completion of the review

The near-term outlook has worsened, while a recovery is expected for next year. Amid a weak health system and a surge in infections over the summer, the gradual reopening of the economy has faced setbacks and the p...

Kingdom of Lesotho
			: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics

Kingdom of Lesotho : Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2020/317

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564036.002

ISBN: 9781513564036

Keywords: Government finance statistics, Expenditure, Public sector, Data collection, Public debt, ISCR, CR, accounts payable, documenting GFS compilation procedure, compilation file

In response to a request from the authorities and as part of the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 project, a government finance statis...

Republic of Armenia
			: Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia

Republic of Armenia : Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia »

Volume/Issue: 2020/318

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513549835.002

ISBN: 9781513549835

Keywords: Revenue administration, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Budget planning and preparation, Public debt, Credit, ISCR, CR, IMF staff calculation, positivity rate, commercial bank support

Armenia's economy has been hit hard by twin shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (now in its second wave), and the recent military hostilities involving the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict zone. Reflecting these shocks, growth...

The Behavior of Fixed-income Funds during COVID-19 Market Turmoil

The Behavior of Fixed-income Funds during COVID-19 Market Turmoil »

Volume: 20

Series: Analytical Notes

Author(s): Frank Hespeler , and Felix Suntheim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563695.064

ISBN: 9781513563695

Keywords: Treasury bills and bonds, Economic and Financial Topics, COVID-19 , Cash accounting, Flow of funds, Liquidity, Corporate bonds, Currencies, Sovereign bonds, fixed-income funds

This note analyzes the stress experienced (and caused) by open-end mutual funds during the March COVID-19 stress episode, with a focus on global fixed-income funds. In light of increased valuation uncertainty, fund...

Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities

Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities »

Volume: 20

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): World Bank;International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563619.007

ISBN: 9781513563619

Keywords: Public debt, Government debt management, Debt sustainability analysis, Fiscal risks, Debt sustainability, PP, debt transparency, IMF-WB CD work, debt vulnerability, WB QPSD database

Amid rising debt risks in low-income developing countries and emerging markets, the IMF and the WB have been implementing a multipronged approach (MPA) to address debt vulnerabilities. Amplification of debt risks o...

Guinea
			: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea

Guinea : Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea »

Volume/Issue: 2020/316

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564005.002

ISBN: 9781513564005

Keywords: Public debt, External debt, Revenue administration, Debt relief, Expenditure, ISCR, CR, Guinean authorities, asset declaration form, asset declaration regime

Real growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2020 as the severe impact of the pandemic in the country was partially mitigated by a resilient mining sector. Presidential elections were held on October 18, giving...

Barbados
			: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados

Barbados : Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados »

Volume/Issue: 2020/314

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563671.002

ISBN: 9781513563671

Keywords: Fiscal stance, Public debt, Central bank bills, Credit, International reserves, ISCR, CR, Barbadian authorities, coronavirus pandemic, executive board discussion

Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth-but faces major challenges owing...

Islamic Republic of Mauritania
			: Request for an Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Staff Report

Islamic Republic of Mauritania : Request for an Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2020/315

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563732.002

ISBN: 9781513563732

The authorities have requested a three-month extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement set to expire on December 5, 2020. The three-year arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on December...

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand »

Volume/Issue: 2020/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Harald Finger , Yosuke Kido , Siddharth Kothari , and Elena Loukoianova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563282.001

ISBN: 9781513563282

Keywords: Potential output, Labor force participation, Productivity, Total factor productivity, Capital accumulation, scarring, COVID-19, advanced economies, Australia, New Zealand

While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarrin...

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19 »

Volume/Issue: 2020/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ariadne Checo , Francesco Grigoli , and José Mota

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560915.001

ISBN: 9781513560915

Keywords: Labor, Health, Consumption, Population and demographics, Aging, Optimal containment policies, COVID-19, heterogeneous agents, recession, voluntary social distancing.

The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this pap...

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage »

Volume/Issue: 2020/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ilhyock Shim , Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan , and Xiaoxi Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560946.001

ISBN: 9781513560946

Keywords: Foreign exchange, Exchange rates, Depreciation, Exchange rate adjustments, Currencies, COVID-19, Capital Flows, FX Borrowing, Firm Leverage, WP

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers...

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2020/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brandon Tan , Maria Martinez Peria , Nicola Pierri , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563886.001

ISBN: 9781513563886

Keywords: Loans, Bank resolution, Nonperforming loans, Stocks, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Banks, Government intervention, Market power, Lerner index, WP

The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and...

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities »

Volume/Issue: 2020/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563909.001

ISBN: 9781513563909

Keywords: Business environment, Corporate insolvency, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Bayesian models, Exports, Structural reforms, Random Forest, Business climate, Shapley values, WP

Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different bu...

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules »

Volume/Issue: 2020/274

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Daniel Stoehlker , and Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563855.001

ISBN: 9781513563855

Keywords: Fiscal rules, Budget planning and preparation, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Public debt, fiscal policy, heterogeneous treatment effects, synthetic control, difference-in-differences, WP

This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a...

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age »

Volume/Issue: 2020/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563961.001

ISBN: 9781513563961

Keywords: Women, Aging, Gender, COVID-19 , Education, lockdown, mobility, age., WP, lockdown measure

Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indica...

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium »

Volume/Issue: 2020/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt , Susanna Mursula , Rafael Portillo , and Marika Santoro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561615.001

ISBN: 9781513561615

Keywords: Tariffs, Imports, Exports, Trade balance, Exchange rates, Trade policy, trade elasticity, Nominal and real rigidities, general equilibrium, WP

In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE)...

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History »

Volume/Issue: 2020/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563893.001

ISBN: 9781513563893

Keywords: COVID-19 , Communicable diseases, Population and demographics, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Pandemics, nonfinancial corporate performance, firm-level, WP, nonfinancial firm

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically...

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam »

Volume/Issue: 2020/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Giovanni Ganelli , Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen , and Thuy Thi Thu Vu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563862.001

ISBN: 9781513563862

Keywords: Informal employment, Wages, Labor, Employment, Labor markets, informality, Vietnam, Labor Force Survey, labor market segmentation, structural reforms

Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality and transitions from fo...

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike »

Volume/Issue: 2020/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Federico Di Pace , Luciana Juvenal , and Ivan Petrella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563916.001

ISBN: 9781513563916

Keywords: Export prices, Import prices, Terms of trade, Exports, Commodities, Commodity Prices, Business Cycles, World Shocks, WP, price shock

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not...

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2020/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose L. Torres , and Sidonia McKenzie

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563947.001

ISBN: 9781513563947

Keywords: Unemployment, Labor markets, Unemployment rate, Employment, Labor, labor market, youth unemployment, labor rigidities, synthetic panel., WP

Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, w...

Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries

Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/065

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563572.007

ISBN: 9781513563572

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, COVID-19 , Fiscal consolidation, Oil, PP, GCC country, IMF staff calculation, GCC authorities, labor market

The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Measures to contain the spread of the virus have led to sharp declines in economic activity across the globe, particularly in 2020Q2...

Guinea- Bissau
			: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission

Guinea- Bissau : Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2020/312

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563343.002

ISBN: 9781513563343

Keywords: External sector statistics, External debt, Foreign direct investment, Income, Private debt, ISCR, CR, balance of payments Committee of Guinea-Bissau, balance of payments goods account, Guinea-Bissau's balance of payments committee

A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Guinea-Bissau during February 3 to 7, 2020. The mission was conducted in Bissau at the request of the National Directorate for Guinea-...

Guinea
			: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics

Guinea : Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2020/313

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563411.002

ISBN: 9781513563411

Keywords: External sector statistics, Mining sector, Foreign direct investment, Balance of payments statistics, Data collection, ISCR, CR, balance of payments software application, BCRG Excel template, balance of payments questionnaire

The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for the benefit of Guinea, under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa, funded by the...

The Fund's Income Position For FY 2020 -- Actual Outcome

The Fund's Income Position For FY 2020 -- Actual Outcome »

Volume/Issue: 2020/064

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563312.007

ISBN: 9781513563312

Keywords: Personal income, Budget planning and preparation, Financial statements, Exchange rates, Discount rates, PP, SDR billion, SDR millions, Fixed-Income Subaccount, about SDR

This paper reports on the Fund's income position for FY 2020 following the closing of the Fund's accounts for the financial year and completion of the external audit. Net operational income was about SDR 1.4 billio...

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability »

Volume/Issue: 2020/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , and Armand Fouejieu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557496.001

ISBN: 9781513557496

Keywords: Public debt, Fiscal policy, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Fiscal risks, Debt, fiscal deficit, sustainability, stochastic simulations., WP

Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fisc...

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU »

Volume/Issue: 2020/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563329.001

ISBN: 9781513563329

Keywords: Insurance, Standing facilities, Natural disasters, Public debt, Stocks, ECCU, fiscal cycles, Monte Carlo experiment, debt sustainability., WP

This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well...

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America »

Volume/Issue: 2020/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Janada , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563275.001

ISBN: 9781513563275

Keywords: Labor costs, Vector error correction models, Vector autoregression, Business environment, Private investment, determinants of investment, confidence, uncertainty, VAR, VECM

This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of...

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity »

Volume/Issue: 2020/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gareth Anderson , and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563336.001

ISBN: 9781513563336

Keywords: Credit, Bonds, Monetary tightening, Corporate bonds, Credit ratings, monetary policy, heterogeneity, credit spreads, excess bond premium, credit channel

Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-finan...

Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China

Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China »

Volume/Issue: 2020/265

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561639.001

ISBN: 9781513561639

Keywords: Housing prices, Housing, Consumption, Securities markets, Stock markets, Chinese housing, COVID-19, Financial market incompleteness, DSGE, WP

Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households' balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much a...

Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK

Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK »

Volume/Issue: 2020/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Arregui , and Ian Parry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561264.001

ISBN: 9781513561264

Keywords: Carbon tax, Greenhouse gas emissions, Public expenditure review, Transportation, Climate change, net-zero, UK climate mitigation, carbon pricing, feebate, international carbon price floor.

The UK has pledged to cut greenhouse gases 57 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to be emisisons neutral by 2050, and to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Much progress has been made, but fully...

Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth

Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2020/271

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Khaled Abdel-Kader , and Ruud A. Mooij

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561561.001

ISBN: 9781513561561

Keywords: Income, Capital income tax, Income and capital gains taxes, Corporate income tax, Income tax systems, tax policy, inclusive growth, inequality, poverty, income distribution

This paper discusses the theory and practice of tax design to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome, i.e. in support of inclusive growth. It starts with a discussion of the key principles from tax theory to gu...

Brazil
			: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

Brazil : 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2020/311

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513562674.002

ISBN: 9781513562674

Keywords: Public debt, Expenditure, Labor, Income, Labor markets, ISCR, CR, inflation expectation, reform agenda, liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened Brazil's longstanding vulnerabilities of low potential growth, high income inequality, and weak fiscal position. While the authorities mounted a rapid and effective response to su...

Finance & Development, December 2020

Finance & Development, December 2020 »

Volume: 57

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513544625.022

ISBN: 9781513544625

Finance & Development, December 2020...

Albania
			: First Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania

Albania : First Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania »

Volume/Issue: 2020/309

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513562582.002

ISBN: 9781513562582

Keywords: Public debt, Revenue administration, External debt, Budget planning and preparation, Fiscal risks, ISCR, CR, test positivity rate, staff appraisal, test rate

Albania continues to be severely affected by the aftermath of the November 2019 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authorities responded promptly to the shocks, and macroeconomic and financial stability have...

Greece
			: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece

Greece : Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece »

Volume/Issue: 2020/308

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513562551.002

ISBN: 9781513562551

Keywords: Loans, Public debt, Commercial banks, Credit, Nonperforming loans, ISCR, CR, growth prospect, staff recommendation, staff's growth

The pandemic interrupted a modest recovery. Following Greece's early and strict containment measures, GDP contracted by 7.9 percent in 2020H1, slightly worse than the Euro Area (EA) unweighted average excluding Lux...

Somalia
			: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia

Somalia : First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia »

Volume/Issue: 2020/310

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513562612.002

ISBN: 9781513562612

Soon after reaching the HIPC Decision Point and embarking on a new IMFsupported program aimed at supporting the implementation of the authorities' National Development Plan and lifting growth, Somalia was hit by a...

Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?

Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/263

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Belma Öztürkkal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561578.001

ISBN: 9781513561578

Keywords: Credit default swap, COVID-19 , Oil prices, Communicable diseases, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Infectious diseases, sovereign credit risk, CDS spreads, WP, CDS spread

This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 pe...

International Taxation and Luxembourg's Economy

International Taxation and Luxembourg's Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/264

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruud A. Mooij , Dinar Prihardini , Antje Pflugbeil , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560922.001

ISBN: 9781513560922

Keywords: Corporate income tax, Revenue administration, Special purpose vehicle, Income, Environmental taxes, Luxembourg, International Tax, Foreign Direct Investment, Special Purpose Entities., WP

Luxembourg receives ample investment from multinational corporations, in part due to some attractive features in its international tax rules. Around 95 percent of these foreign investments pass through Luxembourg v...

UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification

UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification »

Volume/Issue: 2020/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Ran Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561660.001

ISBN: 9781513561660

Keywords: Financial crises, Early warning systems, Machine learning, Economic and financial statistics, Financial statistics, clustering, unsupervised feature extraction, autoencoder, deep learning, biased label problem

We introduce unFEAR, Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering, to identify economic crisis regimes. Given labeled crisis and non-crisis episodes and the corresponding features values, unFEAR uses unsupervised rep...

Ukraine
			: Technical Assistance Report-A Follow-Up on Distributed Profit Tax, BEPS Implementation, Voluntary Disclosure Program, and Indirect Methods for Determining Taxable Income

Ukraine : Technical Assistance Report-A Follow-Up on Distributed Profit Tax, BEPS Implementation, Voluntary Disclosure Program, and Indirect Methods for Determining Taxable Income »

Volume/Issue: 2020/302

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561400.002

ISBN: 9781513561400

Keywords: Personal income, Controlled foreign corporation rules, Legal support in revenue administration, Double taxation, Income and capital gains taxes, ISCR, CR, taxable income, tax authority, PEM resident

Tax policy in Ukraine is engaged in two fronts at once. On one front, very significant work has been done over the years on the gradual improvement and updating of the tax system; on the other, it questions essenti...

Mexico
			: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report

Mexico : Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2020/306

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561714.002

ISBN: 9781513561714

Keywords: External debt, Public debt, Public sector, Inflation, Credit, ISCR, CR, FCL resource, Mexico's qualification, IMF's executive board

The Covid-19 shock this year has imposed an enormous strain on Mexico. Beside the staggering human cost, the economy faces a historic drop in output and employment and a sharp spike in poverty. It is expected to ta...

Nicaragua
			: Requests for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nicaragua

Nicaragua : Requests for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nicaragua »

Volume/Issue: 2020/307

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561745.002

ISBN: 9781513561745

Keywords: Rapid Credit Facility, Currencies, COVID-19 , Public sector, Public debt, Credit, ISCR, CR, RFI financing, pandemic shock

Nicaragua faces an acute crisis as the COVID-19 shock comes on top of a two- year recession. So far, the speed of transmission of the pandemic in Nicaragua, in terms of officially confirmed cases, has been slower t...

Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19 »

Volume/Issue: 2020/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thilo Kroeger , Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Yuanyan Sophia Zhang , Pham Dinh Thuy , Nguyen Huy Minh , and Duong Danh Tuan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561820.001

ISBN: 9781513561820

Keywords: Liquidity, Currencies, Financial statements, COVID-19 , Services sector, Corporate Vulnerability, Debt at risk, ASEAN, Leverage, Profitability

The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable eve...

Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?

Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560892.001

ISBN: 9781513560892

Keywords: Communicable diseases, Currencies, COVID-19 , Deposit rates, Ebola, Demand for cash, currency-in-circulation, digital money, infectious diseases, WP

The coronavirus pandemic is a global crisis like no other in modern times, and there is a growing apprehension about handling potentially contaminated cash. This paper is the first empirical attempt in the literatu...

Energy, Efficiency Gains and Economic Development: When Will Global Energy Demand Saturate?

Energy, Efficiency Gains and Economic Development: When Will Global Energy Demand Saturate? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Bogmans , Lama Kiyasseh , Akito Matsumoto , and Andrea Pescatori

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561240.001

ISBN: 9781513561240

Keywords: Personal income, Manufacturing, Consumption, Energy prices, Oil prices, Energy demand, economic growth, climate change, WP, income elasticity

Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income f...

Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations »

Volume/Issue: 2020/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Santiago Acosta Ormaechea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561585.001

ISBN: 9781513561585

Keywords: Exchange rates, Public debt, Fiscal stance, Asset valuation, Currencies, Public debt dynamics, intra-year exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate-growth differential, debt stabilizing primary balance., WP

The public sector, in carrying out its operations, often incurs foreign currency denominated liabilities and, as such, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP rati...

Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle »

Volume/Issue: 2020/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Frederic Lambert , Andrea Pescatori , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561288.001

ISBN: 9781513561288

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Labor, Labor markets, Business cycles, Unemployment, labor market, informality, business cycle, WP, commodity price shock

Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in...

Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations

Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations »

Volume/Issue: 2020/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wouter Bossu , Masaru Itatani , Catalina Margulis , Arthur D. P. Rossi , Hans Weenink , and Akihiro Yoshinaga

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561622.001

ISBN: 9781513561622

Keywords: Central Bank digital currencies, Currencies, Central bank legislation, Legal support in revenue administration, Payment systems, Central Bank Digital Currency, CBDC, Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, Crypto assets

This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational r...

Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wouter Bossu , Cory Hillier , and Wolfgang Bergthaler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561608.001

ISBN: 9781513561608

Keywords: Securities, Legal support in revenue administration, Tax law, Bonds, Capital markets, local currency bond markets, development, financial stability, legal and tax frameworks, WP

Recent financial crises including the ongoing one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently drawn attention to the need to strengthen the quality of public debt management in emerging markets and developing...

Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era

Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era »

Volume/Issue: 2020/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Garcia Macia , and Rishi Goyal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561677.001

ISBN: 9781513561677

Keywords: Imports, Exports, Trade liberalization, Technology, Trade balance, digital economy, decoupling, corporate power, technological diffusion, WP

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital services. Meanwhile, the race for technological and economic leadership has heated up, with risks of decoupling that could set back trade and growth an...

What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?

What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jelle Barkema , Tryggvi Gudmundsson , and Mico Mrkaic

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561257.001

ISBN: 9781513561257

Keywords: Output gap, Potential output, Inflation, Business cycles, Current account balance, Output gaps, monetary policy, fiscal policy, WP, output gap estimate

Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in su...

Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020
			: Concepts and Methods

Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 : Concepts and Methods »

Series: Manuals & Guides

Author(s): Brian Graf

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354841.069

ISBN: 9781484354841

Keywords: Consumer price indexes, Price indexes, Expenditure, Consumption, Housing, cconsumer price index, CPI, CPI Manual, CPI concepts, CPI methods

The Consumer Price Index Manual: Concepts and Methods contains comprehensive information and explanations on compiling a consumer price index (CPI). The Manual provides an overview of the methods and practices nati...

Chile
			: Technical Assistance Report-Assessment of Tax Expenditures and Corrective Taxes

Chile : Technical Assistance Report-Assessment of Tax Expenditures and Corrective Taxes »

Volume/Issue: 2020/305

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561684.002

ISBN: 9781513561684

Keywords: Income, Personal income, Corporate income tax, Personal income tax, Value-added tax, ISCR, CR, excise tax, capital gain, taxable income

In response to a request from Mr. Ignacio Briones Rojas, Minister of Finance of Chile, a remote mission was conducted by a joint team of staff from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the secretariat of the O...

Botswana
			: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Mission

Botswana : Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2020/303

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561493.002

ISBN: 9781513561493

Keywords: National accounts, Financial sector, Health, Data collection, Trade in services, ISCR, CR, SB list, SB staff, SB frame

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by IMF's Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS)1 during June 8-12, 2020 to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) in improving the quality of the n...

Burkina Faso
			: Fourth & Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion & Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso : Fourth & Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion & Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso »

Volume/Issue: 2020/304

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561530.002

ISBN: 9781513561530

Keywords: Public debt, External debt, Debt sustainability analysis, Securities, Expenditure, ISCR, CR, ECF program performance, ECF arrangement, IMF lending tracker

The security crisis is worsening and is leading to disruption of basic public services and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The Covid19 outbreak and the authority's response to contain its spread further compo...

Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System

Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System »

Volume/Issue: 2020/002

Series: Departmental Papers

Author(s): Alina Iancu , Gareth Anderson , Sakai Ando , Ethan Boswell , Andrea Gamba , Shushanik Hakobyan , Lusine Lusinyan , Neil Meads , and Yiqun Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560298.087

ISBN: 9781513560298

Keywords: Reserve currencies, Basket of currencies composition, Debt (external), International monetary system, Currencies, Digital currencies, International reserves, Central Bank digital currencies, Foreign exchange reserves, international currency

Despite major structural shifts in the international monetary system over the past six decades, the US dollar remains the dominant international reserve currency. Using a newly compiled database of individual econo...

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2020 Financial Statements

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2020 Financial Statements »

Series: Annual Report of the Executive Board

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513547770.011

ISBN: 9781513547770

The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2020 and 2019...

Republic of South Sudan
			: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of South Sudan

Republic of South Sudan : Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of South Sudan »

Volume/Issue: 2020/301

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561356.002

ISBN: 9781513561356

Keywords: Rapid Credit Facility, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM), Oil prices, External debt, Debt sustainability analysis, ISCR, CR, governor of the Bank of South Sudan, discussions with Mr. Ngor

After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to a peace agreement in September 2018. Until the COVID-19 crisis broke out, improved political stability and an uptick in international oil prices led t...

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2020

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2020 »

Series: Annual Report of the Executive Board

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513538211.011

ISBN: 9781513538211

This year, as the world faced a crisis like no other, the International Monetary Fund and its member countries swung into action to save lives and put a floor under the world economy. But the outlook remains uncert...

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
			: Request for a 42-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan : Request for a 42-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan »

Volume/Issue: 2020/300

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561127.002

ISBN: 9781513561127

Keywords: Public debt, Expenditure, Budget planning and preparation, Currencies, External debt, ISCR, CR, asset declaration regime, COVID emergency financing grant, anti-corruption regime

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted a heavy economic and social toll, amplifying the challenges of the armed conflict and fragility. Activity contracted sharply, and new external and fiscal financing needs emerged...

Spain
			: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain

Spain : 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain »

Volume/Issue: 192020/298

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561004.002

ISBN: 9781513561004

Keywords: Income, Public debt, Labor, Loans, Loan guarantees, ISCR, CR, GDP outturn, draft budget law, staff assumption

COVID-19 impact. The pandemic has hit Spain's society and economy severely following five years of strong job-rich growth. A large service sector dominated by SMEs, importance of tourism, and widespread use of temp...

Spain
			: Selected Issues

Spain : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 192020/299

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560984.002

ISBN: 9781513560984

Keywords: Women, Labor markets, Gender inequality, Labor, Minimum wages, ISCR, CR, job loss probability, minimum wage wage earner, minimum-to-median wage ratio

The COVID-19 pandemic will exacerbate Spain's already large inclusion gap. Responding in the recovery with policies that support social objectives should be a key priority and calls for several structural changes....

Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?

Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/249

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Catherine Koch , and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561226.001

ISBN: 9781513561226

Keywords: Bank credit, Portfolio investment, Cross-border banking, Foreign direct investment, Foreign banks, Chinese banks, Trade, FDI, Gravity model, WP

We explore the global footprint of Chinese banks and compare it with that of other bank nationalities. Chinese banks have become the largest cross-border creditors for almost half of all emerging market and develop...

China's Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters

China's Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters »

Volume/Issue: 2020/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nitya Aasaavari , Fabio Di Vittorio , Ana Lariau , Yuebo Li , Rui Mano , and Pedro Rodriguez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561141.001

ISBN: 9781513561141

Keywords: Exports, Competition, Comparative advantage, Imports, Real exports, China’s rebalancing, Latin America and the Caribbean, trade integration, WP, Asia-Lac trade linkage

Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), two regions with large growth potential, have become increasingly connected over the last 20 years. China has emerged not only as a top trading partner, but also as a...

Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India

Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India »

Volume/Issue: 2020/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , and Fabien Gonguet

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513559599.001

ISBN: 9781513559599

Keywords: Government debt management, Fiscal reporting, Budget planning and preparation, Fiscal transparency, Fiscal risks, Government Statistics, Budget Systems, India, WP, Union government

Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisio...

Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats

Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats »

Volume/Issue: 2020/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chikako Baba , Cristina Batog , Enrique Flores , Borja Gracia , Izabela Karpowicz , Piotr Kopyrski , James Roaf , Anna Shabunina , Rachel Elkan , and Xin Cindy Xu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561165.001

ISBN: 9781513561165

Keywords: Fintech, Peer-to-peer lending, Loans, Financial statements, Crowdfunding, lending, payment system, European Union, Payments Directive, PSD2

Europe's high pre-existing level of financial development can partly account for the relatively smaller reach of fintech payment and lending activities compared to some other regions. But fintech activity is growin...

Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?

Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carine Meyimdjui

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561219.001

ISBN: 9781513561219

Keywords: Commodity price shocks, Remittances, Fiscal policy, Expenditure, Government consumption, import food price shocks, political instability, fiscal policy., WP, food price shock

Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price...

Improving the Short-term Forecast of World Trade During the Covid-19 Pandemic Using Swift Data on Letters of Credit

Improving the Short-term Forecast of World Trade During the Covid-19 Pandemic Using Swift Data on Letters of Credit »

Volume/Issue: 2020/247

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , Nan Hu , Joannes Mongardini , Kei Moriya , and Aneta Radzikowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561196.001

ISBN: 9781513561196

Keywords: Oil prices, Imports, Exports, Trade finance, Trade balance, SWIFT, trade forecast, machine learning, WP, world trade

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturin...

India's Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting

India's Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting »

Volume/Issue: 2020/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561233.001

ISBN: 9781513561233

Keywords: Inflation, Food prices, Inflation targeting, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Import prices, India, WP, inflation expectation, headline inflation processes, food price inflation

We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India. Our analysis uses several approaches including standard Philli...

Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses

Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2020/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Williams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561158.001

ISBN: 9781513561158

Keywords: Inflation, Return on investment, Oil prices, Liquidity, Inflation targeting, inflation expectations, yield curve, factor modeling, no-arbitrage term structure model, TIPS

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC's target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates infor...

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2020/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian , Fernando Duarte , Nellie Liang , and Pawel Zabczyk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561066.001

ISBN: 9781513561066

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, Macro-Finance.

We extend the New Keynesian (NK) model to include endogenous risk. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also conditional output risk via their impact on risk-taking, giving rise to a...

Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion

Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion »

Volume/Issue: 2020/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss , Sandra Lizarazo , and Francesco Grigoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513559650.001

ISBN: 9781513559650

Keywords: Inflation, Economic forecasting, Inflation targeting, Central bank policy rate, Futures, Anchoring, disagreement, dispersion, information rigidity, in?ation expectations

Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks' ability to deliver stable inflation and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from majo...

Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt

Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt »

Volume/Issue: 2020/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexandra Fotiou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560939.001

ISBN: 9781513560939

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, Public debt, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal multipliers, Debt, Recessions, Expansions, Fiscal consolidations, Interacted-STVAR

Empirical evidence shows that fiscal multipliers depend on the state of the cycle, the nature of fiscal policy and the level of debt. In other words, evidence points to non-linearities in the effects of fiscal poli...