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The Negative Mean Output Gap

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The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511740.001

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

The Negative Mean Output Gap

New
The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Source: The Negative Mean Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Source: European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319294.001

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines »

Source: Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Volume/Issue: 2019/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Si Guo , Philippe Karam , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498319324

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Development, Price controls, Monetary policy, inflation, the Philippines, output gap, BSP, inflation rate

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence...

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries1

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries1 »

Source: Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Volume/Issue: 2019/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hidetaka Nishizawa , Scott Roger , and Huan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498320801

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Accounting, Accounting standards, Agriculture, Aid flows, Balance of payments, Bank deposits, Bank financing, Banks, Bonds

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spend...

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines »

Volume/Issue: 2019/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Si Guo , Philippe Karam , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319324.001

ISBN: 9781498319324

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Development, Price controls, Monetary policy, inflation, the Philippines, output gap, BSP, inflation rate

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence...

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hidetaka Nishizawa , Scott Roger , and Huan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320801.001

ISBN: 9781498320801

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Accounting, Accounting standards, Agriculture, Aid flows, Balance of payments, Bank deposits, Bank financing, Banks, Bonds

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spend...

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect »

Volume/Issue: 2019/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321761.001

ISBN: 9781498321761

Keywords: Nominal effective exchange rate, Inflation targeting, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, spillovers, co-movement, weather, core inflation

Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks-a result which the pa...

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru »

Volume/Issue: 2019/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Freudenberg , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318525.001

ISBN: 9781498318525

Keywords: Pension funds, Social safety nets, Wage indexation, Labor market reforms, Minimum wages, Pension System, Contribution Density, Replacement Rates, Peru, replacement rate

Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the population. Using ad...