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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Source: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584097.001

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany »

Volume/Issue: 2013/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tom Krebs , and Martin Scheffel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589062702.001

ISBN: 9781589062702

Keywords: Labor Market Reform, unemployed, unemployment rate, labor market, employment

In 2005 the German government implemented the so-called Hartz IV reform, which amounted to a complete overhaul of the German unemployment insurance system and resulted in a significant reduction in unemployment ben...

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany1

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany1 »

Source: Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany

Volume/Issue: 2013/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tom Krebs , and Martin Scheffel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2013

ISBN: 9781589062702

Keywords: Labor Market Reform, unemployed, unemployment rate, labor market, employment

In 2005 the German government implemented the so-called Hartz IV reform, which amounted to a complete overhaul of the German unemployment insurance system and resulted in a significant reduction in unemployment ben...

The Human Cost of Recessions

The Human Cost of Recessions »

Source: The Human Cost of Recessions : Assessing It, Reducing It

Volume/Issue: 2010/17

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Mai Dao , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462308163

Keywords: Developed countries, Cross country analysis, Economic recession, Emerging markets, Fiscal consolidation, Recessions, Human capital, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Labor markets

Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007-09. We assess the human cost of increased un...

The Human Cost of Recessions
			: Assessing It, Reducing It

The Human Cost of Recessions : Assessing It, Reducing It »

Volume/Issue: 2010/17

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Mai Dao , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462308163.004

ISBN: 9781462308163

Keywords: Developed countries, Cross country analysis, Economic recession, Emerging markets, Fiscal consolidation, Recessions, Human capital, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Labor markets

Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007-09. We assess the human cost of increased un...

Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU

Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU »

Volume/Issue: 2008/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869057.001

ISBN: 9781451869057

Keywords: regional wage differentiation, wage bargaining system, wage, bargaining, wage bargaining, wage differentiation,

The theoretical literature has argued that a centralized wage bargaining system may result in low regional wage differentiation and high regional unemployment differentials. The empirical literature has found that...

Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU

Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU »

Source: Regional Wage Differentiation and Wage Bargaining Systems in the EU

Volume/Issue: 2008/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869057

Keywords: regional wage differentiation, wage bargaining system, wage, bargaining, wage bargaining, wage differentiation,

The theoretical literature has argued that a centralized wage bargaining system may result in low regional wage differentiation and high regional unemployment differentials. The empirical literature has found that...

Global Aging Pressures

Global Aging Pressures »

Source: Global Aging Pressures : Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms

Volume/Issue: 2007/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Kumar , and Dennis Botman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2007

ISBN: 9781451867602

Keywords: Global aging, fiscal cooperation, Lisbon Agenda, IMF&;amp;#x2019;s Global Fiscal Mode, aging, social security, government spending, fiscal variables,

Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global agin...

Global Aging Pressures
			: Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms

Global Aging Pressures : Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms »

Volume/Issue: 2007/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Kumar , and Dennis Botman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867602.001

ISBN: 9781451867602

Keywords: Global aging, fiscal cooperation, Lisbon Agenda, IMF&;amp;#x2019;s Global Fiscal Mode, aging, social security, government spending, fiscal variables,

Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global agin...