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Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2010/03

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455224982.004

ISBN: 9781455224982

Keywords: Bank credit, Bank regulations, Bank supervision, Central bank role, Economic policy, Economic stabilization, Financial crisis, Financial intermediation, Fiscal policy, Inflation targeting

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review...

The Human Cost of Recessions
			: Assessing It, Reducing It

The Human Cost of Recessions : Assessing It, Reducing It »

Volume/Issue: 2010/17

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Mai Dao , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462308163.004

ISBN: 9781462308163

Keywords: Developed countries, Cross country analysis, Economic recession, Emerging markets, Fiscal consolidation, Recessions, Human capital, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Labor markets

Recessions leave scars on the labor market. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present resulting from the Great Recession of 2007-09. We assess the human cost of increased un...

A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy

A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy »

Volume/Issue: 2013/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro , Rafael Romeu , Ariel Binder , and Asad Zaman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616357825.001

ISBN: 9781616357825

Keywords: fiscal balance, fiscal policy response, fiscal prudence, Deficit,

We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries-to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available-to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or pro...

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit
			: Evidence from Syndicated Loans

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit : Evidence from Syndicated Loans »

Volume/Issue: 2013/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Senay Agca , and Deniz Igan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475564440.001

ISBN: 9781475564440

Keywords: cost of credit, loan spreads, fiscal consolidations, spending cuts, fiscal policy, Firm, General,

We examine how the cost of corporate credit varies around fiscal consolidations aimed at reducing government debt. Using a new dataset on fiscal consolidations and syndicated corporate loan data, we find that loan...

Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries

Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2012/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Eyraud , Anita Tuladhar , Julio Escolano , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Juliane Sarnes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936464.001

ISBN: 9781463936464

Keywords: fiscal institutions, decentralization, subnational governments, fiscal performance, State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper analyzes the impact of decentralization on overall fiscal performance in the European Union, taking into account fiscal institutional arrangements. We find that spending decentralization has been associa...

Fiscal Policy and Growth in the Context of European Integration

Fiscal Policy and Growth in the Context of European Integration »

Volume/Issue: 2000/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Masson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855487.001

ISBN: 9781451855487

Keywords: fiscal federalism, tax competition, tax rates, fiscal policies, pension, pensions

The paper considers the issue of whether a supranational fiscal policy in Europe is needed, and, if so, what responsibilities it should undertake. The literature on endogenous growth and the principle of subsidiari...

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance
			: An Empirical Analysis of Spain's Regions

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance : An Empirical Analysis of Spain's Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2017/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mar Delgado-Téllez , Victor Lledo , and Javier Pérez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475569841.001

ISBN: 9781475569841

Keywords: Regional economics, State taxation, Fiscal policy, Europe, Spain, Fiscal compliance, rules, fiscal federalism, soft budget constraints, Forecasts of Budgets

This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is appli...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields

Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields »

Volume/Issue: 2011/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emre Alper , and Lorenzo Forni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463902209.001

ISBN: 9781463902209

Keywords: long-term real rates, domestic debt, debt ratio, real rates, inflation, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possibl...

Tax Revenue Downturns
			: Anatomy and Links to Imports

Tax Revenue Downturns : Anatomy and Links to Imports »

Volume/Issue: 2010/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kun Li , and Pablo Lopez Murphy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201211.001

ISBN: 9781455201211

Keywords: downturns, tax revenues, fiscal policy, tax policy, tax bases, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government, Taxation, Subsidies

We study historical tax revenue downturn episodes-where tax revenue-to-GDP ratios decline sharply-and explore the link between tax revenues and imports. We document that downturn episodes of at least 1 percentage p...