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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets
			: Does Investment Grade Matter?

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets : Does Investment Grade Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Michelle Tejada

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218981.001

ISBN: 9781455218981

Keywords: Rating Agencies, public debt, external public debt, standard deviation, external debt, standard errors, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status...

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries
			: External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries : External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital »

Volume/Issue: 1988/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 1988

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451969443.001

ISBN: 9781451969443

Keywords: external debt, capital intensity, capital ratio, domestic savings, cost of capital

This paper formulates a simple aggregate growth model that is capable of assessing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the long-term performance of a developing country. The model emphasizes expenditures on hum...

Public Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Public Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic »

Volume/Issue: 2007/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Jobst , Laura Valderrama , Ivan Guerra , and Hemant Shah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867114.001

ISBN: 9781451867114

Keywords: public debt markets, and capital market development, public debt, debt, central bank, debt management, external debt,

This paper-consisting of a regional study and seven country studies-reviews the state of domestic public debt markets in Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama as at...

International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet: A Heterogeneous-Product Approach

International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet: A Heterogeneous-Product Approach »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4

Volume: 56

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 November 2009

ISBN: 9781589069107

Keywords: sovereign default, sovereign debt, external debt, sovereign defaults, current account

This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the finan...

On the Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability: Structural Breaks and Non-Normality

On the Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability: Structural Breaks and Non-Normality »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4

Volume: 56

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 November 2009

ISBN: 9781589069107

Keywords: sovereign default, sovereign debt, external debt, sovereign defaults, current account

This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the finan...

The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks

The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4

Volume: 56

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 November 2009

ISBN: 9781589069107

Keywords: sovereign default, sovereign debt, external debt, sovereign defaults, current account

This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the finan...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Public Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Public Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic »

Source: Public Debt Markets in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Volume/Issue: 2007/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Jobst , Laura Valderrama , Ivan Guerra , and Hemant Shah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

ISBN: 9781451867114

Keywords: public debt markets, and capital market development, public debt, debt, central bank, debt management, external debt,

This paper-consisting of a regional study and seven country studies-reviews the state of domestic public debt markets in Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama as at...

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets »

Source: Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets : Does Investment Grade Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2011/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Michelle Tejada

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455218981

Keywords: Rating Agencies, public debt, external public debt, standard deviation, external debt, standard errors, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status...