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Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan »

Volume/Issue: 2019/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484396230.001

ISBN: 9781484396230

Keywords: Real interest rates, Negative interest rates, Interest rate policy, Economic growth, Interest rate increases, Demographic change;natural rate of interest;monetary policy;Japan;natural rate;Turunen;potential growth;Pescatori;real interest rate

Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-st...

Global Liquidity and Asset Prices
			: Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers

Global Liquidity and Asset Prices : Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 1999/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaas Baks , and Charles Kramer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858242.001

ISBN: 9781451858242

Keywords: Liquidity, money growth, international spillovers, monetary policy, real interest rates, monetary aggregates

Much recent commentary suggests that global liquidity has influenced financial conditions in the major international markets to an important degree, and that excess liquidity in one financial center can influence f...

GPM6
			: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

GPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2013/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ioan Carabenciov , Charles Freedman , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Ondra Kamenik , and Petar Manchev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484318942.001

ISBN: 9781484318942

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, inflation, real exchange rate, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economist...

How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?

How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484358603.001

ISBN: 9781484358603

Keywords: time-variation, debt, interest, interest rates, forward rates, private sector debt, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, c...

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage »

Volume/Issue: 2014/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anton Korinek , and Alp Simsek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498370943.001

ISBN: 9781498370943

Keywords: Leverage, liquidity trap, zero lower bound, aggregate demand externality, efficiency, aggregate demand, inflation, real interest rate, contractionary monetary policy, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to f...

More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy

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More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2019/198

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Baksa , and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509082.001

ISBN: 9781513509082

Keywords: Price indexes, Economic growth, Real interest rates, Central banking and monetary issues, Negative interest rates, aging, monetary policy transmission, optimal monetary policy, inflation targeting, WP

The evidence on the inflation impact of aging is mixed, and there is no evidence regarding the volatility of inflation. Based on advanced economies' data and a DSGE-OLG model, we find that aging leads to downward p...

Nominal Income Targeting
			: A Critical Evaluation

Nominal Income Targeting : A Critical Evaluation »

Volume/Issue: 1991/92

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Victor Argy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1991

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851557.001

ISBN: 9781451851557

Keywords: money stock, monetary policy, inflation, real interest rate, money demand

This paper evaluates the proposal that government authorities ought to target nominal income. It begins by viewing the literature in some detail. It then undertakes a theoretical analysis of the proposal first for...

Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks' Risk Exposures under Abenomics

Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks' Risk Exposures under Abenomics »

Volume/Issue: 2013/213

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , and Waikei Lam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374214.001

ISBN: 9781484374214

Keywords: Abenomics, interest rate risks, sovereign yields, unconventional monetary policy, Japanese government bonds (JGB), interest, debt, interest rates, interest rate, public debt

This paper examines how Japan’s long-term interest rates and Japanese banks’ interest rate risk exposures may evolve under Abenomics. Results from a panel regression analysis for major advanced econom...

Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates

Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2018/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gee Hee Hong , and John Kandrac

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361610.001

ISBN: 9781484361610

Keywords: Bank lending rates, Central banks and their policies, Monetary transmission mechanism, Negative interest rates, Asia and Pacific, Economic conditions, Japan, monetary transmission, bank risk taking, lending channel

In this paper, we investigate how negative interest rate policy (NIRP) introduced in January 2016 by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) affected Japanese banks' lending and risk taking behavior. The BoJ's announcement was an...

Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors

Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors »

Volume/Issue: 2009/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache , and Alexander Attie

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872378.001

ISBN: 9781451872378

Keywords: Investments, Portfolio Allocation, Diversification, monetary policy, effects of inflation, real interest rates, monetary policy regime,

Long-term investors face a common problem-how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and achieve a level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds...