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Commodity Terms of Trade
			: A New Database

New
Commodity Terms of Trade : A New Database »

Volume/Issue: 2019/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss , and Suhaib Kebhaj

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393857.001

ISBN: 9781484393857

Keywords: Commodity terms of trade; terms of trade; commodity prices, Commodity terms of trade, terms of trade, commodity prices, General

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individu...

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2018/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484366776.001

ISBN: 9781484366776

Keywords: Banking crisis, Commodity prices, Banking crisis; Commodity prices; Early warning system; Low-income countries, Early warning system, Low-income countries, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Lending and Debt Problems

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity p...

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Isha Agrawal , Rupa Duttagupta , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333044.001

ISBN: 9781484333044

Keywords: Commodity prices, Developing countries, Bank lending; Commodity prices; Macro-financial linkages; Developing countries, Bank lending, Macro-financial linkages, General, International Lending and Debt Problems, Global Commodity Crises

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 develop...

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru »

Volume/Issue: 2017/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Roch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 September 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320648.001

ISBN: 9781484320648

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Peru, Chile, Colombia, JEL Classification Numbers: E62, F14, H50, O13 Commodity Prices, Fiscal Policy, Flexible Exchange Rates

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses o...

Financial Resource Curse in Resource-Rich Countries

Financial Resource Curse in Resource-Rich Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Montfort Mlachila , and Rasmané Ouedraogo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484310144.001

ISBN: 9781484310144

Keywords: Commodity price shocks, financial sector development, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation

Why do commodity-dependent developing countries have typically lower levels of financial development than their peers? The literature has proposed many possible explanations, but it typically does not dwell on the...

Mongolia
			: Technical Assistance Report- Report on the National Accounts Mission

Mongolia : Technical Assistance Report- Report on the National Accounts Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2017/52

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475579093.002

ISBN: 9781475579093

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Commodity price fluctuations, Copper, Gross domestic product, National accounts, Natural resources, Mining sector, Mongolia, Technical assistance missions, Technical Assistance Reports

This Technical Assistance Report evaluates the National Accounts Mission in Mongolia. Mongolia's national accounts statistics were found to be broadly adequate for IMF surveillance according to the most recent IMF...

Senegal
			: Selected Issues

Senegal : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2017/2

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475564266.002

ISBN: 9781475564266

Keywords: Staff Reports, Western Hemisphere, Hydrocarbons, Monetary policy, Press releases, Bolivia, Banking sector, Article IV consultations, Commodity price fluctuations, Debt sustainability analysis

This Selected Issues paper offers policy recommendations for Senegal to reach high and sustained growth with the goal of exiting low-income country status. For Senegal to reach Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) objective...

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through
			: Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through : Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database »

Volume/Issue: 2016/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kangni Kpodar , and Chadi Abdallah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475563221.001

ISBN: 9781475563221

Keywords: Developed countries, Emerging markets, Europe, Gasoline prices, Fuels, Commodity price shocks, Price increases, Oil product prices, North Africa, Oil

This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on av...

Bolivia
			: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia

Bolivia : 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia »

Volume/Issue: 2016/387

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475561982.002

ISBN: 9781475561982

Keywords: Staff Reports, Western Hemisphere, Press releases, Monetary policy, Economic indicators, Economic growth, Fiscal policy, Flexible exchange rate policy, Hydrocarbons, Bolivia

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Bolivia's substantial economic and social progress, boosted by the commodity boom. Growth has been strong, averaging about 5 percent since 2006, and poverty has fallen b...

To Bet or Not to Bet
			: Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile

To Bet or Not to Bet : Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile »

Volume/Issue: 2016/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli , and Esther Perez Ruiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475553598.001

ISBN: 9781475553598

Keywords: Investment, Exchange rates, Chile, Chile, Copper, Commodity prices, Vector autoregression, Options, copper price, exchange rate

A strand of research documents Chile's copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices' sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rek...