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Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries »

Source: Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries : Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

Volume/Issue: 2013/61

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Andrew Berg , R. Morales , Rafael Portillo , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2013

ISBN: 9781475537444

Keywords: Low-Income Countries, inflation, central bank, relative price, relative prices, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use...

Fragmentation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Fragmentation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area »

Source: Fragmentation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2013/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Al-Eyd , and Pelin Berkmen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484328750

Keywords: fragmentation, interest, markets, lending, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The ECB has taken a range of actions to address bank funding problems, eliminate excessive risk in sovereign markets, and safeguard monetary transmission. But euro area financial markets have remained fragmented, d...

Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking

Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking »

Source: Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking : Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic

Volume/Issue: 2015/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Jaromir Benes , Joshua Felman , Irene Feng , Charles Freedman , Douglas Laxton , Evan Tanner , David Vavra , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475532371

Keywords: Inflation-Forecast Targeting, exchange rate tool, zero lower bound, forward guidance, central bank communications, inflation, exchange, exchange rate, interest, Monetary Policy (Targets

The paper first describes how the Czech National Bank (CNB) moved gradually from a fixed exchange rate regime to the frontiers of Inflation-Forecast Targeting. It then focuses on the CNB's recent experience in addi...

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model »

Source: FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

Volume/Issue: 2017/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zineddine Alla , Raphael Espinoza , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 September 2017

ISBN: 9781484320617

Keywords: Foreign exchange, Central banks and their policies, Central bank reserves; Speculative attack; Portfolio balance model; Equilibrium determinacy; Capital flows; Capital controls; Open Economy New Keynesian Model, Central bank reserves, Speculative attack, Portfolio balance model, Equilibrium determinacy, Capital flows, Capital controls, Open Economy New Keynesian Model

We develop an open economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. We obtain closed-form solutions for the optimal interest rate policy and FX in...

The Game of Anchors

The Game of Anchors »

Source: The Game of Anchors : Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus

Volume/Issue: 2015/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alex Miksjuk , Sam Ouliaris , and Mikhail Pranovich

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 December 2015

ISBN: 9781498342728

Keywords: currency crisis, exchange rate policies, currency, exchange rate, monetary policy, currency crises, economy, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) co...

Getting to Know GIMF

Getting to Know GIMF »

Source: Getting to Know GIMF : The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Volume/Issue: 2013/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , Michael Kumhof , Douglas Laxton , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475559415

Keywords: business cycle, fiscal multipliers, general equilibrium models, interest rates, macroeconomic interdependence, policy effects, simulation, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research....

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation »

Source: Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2015/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Prakash Loungani , John Simon , and Susan Wachter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513542973

Keywords: pass-through, food, economies, food price, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper provides a broad brush look at the impact of fluctuations in global food prices on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, we find that these fluctuations have played a...

Global House Price Fluctuations

Global House Price Fluctuations »

Source: Global House Price Fluctuations : Synchronization and Determinants

Volume/Issue: 2013/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hideaki Hirata , Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475523621

Keywords: globalization, globalization period, inflation, long-term interest rates, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Housing Supply and Markets,

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, w...

Global Monetary Tightening

Global Monetary Tightening »

Source: Global Monetary Tightening : Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises

Volume/Issue: 2014/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Christina Kolerus , and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2014

ISBN: 9781475584691

Keywords: Debt dynamics, sovereign debt crisis, unconventional, debt, bond, interest, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies' public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global ris...

GPM6

GPM6 »

Source: GPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

Volume/Issue: 2013/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ioan Carabenciov , Charles Freedman , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Ondra Kamenik , and Petar Manchev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 April 2013

ISBN: 9781484318942

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, inflation, real exchange rate, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economist...