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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence*

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence* »

Source: Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Volume/Issue: 2018/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudolfs Bems , Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Bertrand Gruss , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484388846

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Inflation persistence, Anchoring, credibility, terms of trade, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation....

Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions

Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions »

Source: Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions : Yields from a DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2017/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sébastien Walker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475595772

Keywords: Africa, Monetary policy, financial frictions, foreign capital flows, DSGE models, supply shocks, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a financial accelerator which captures key features of low-income countries (LICs). The predominance of supply shocks in LICs poses dis...

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers1

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers1 »

Source: Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2015/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qianying Chen , Andrew Filardo , Dong He , and Feng Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475520668

Keywords: emerging economies, global VAR, international monetary policy spillovers, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, federal reserve, securities, reserve, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the...

Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?

Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ? »

Source: Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?

Volume/Issue: 2019/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Corrales , and Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2019

ISBN: 9781484393192

Keywords: Dollarization, Foreign exchange, Household, Firm, Financial deepening, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

Using a newly complied and extended database from International Financial Statistics, and applying different panel-regression techniques, this paper documents the evolution of households' and firms' dollarization o...

Financial Factors

Financial Factors »

Source: Financial Factors : Implications for Output Gaps

Volume/Issue: 2015/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pau Rabanal , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513512860

Keywords: Monetary Union, Output Gap, Financial Frictions, Bayesian Estimation, potential output, credit, costs, monetary policy, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets

We suggest a new approach for analyzing the role of financial variables and shocks in computing the output gap. We estimate a two-region DSGE model for the euro area, with financial frictions at the household level...

Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle

Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle »

Source: Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle

Volume/Issue: 2014/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498347792

Keywords: DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, Financial Frictions, Sources of Business Cycle, business cycle, business cycle fluctuations, Bayesian Analysis, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture th...

Financial Frictions in Data

Financial Frictions in Data »

Source: Financial Frictions in Data : Evidence and Impact

Volume/Issue: 2014/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2014

ISBN: 9781484336557

Keywords: Financial Frictions, Bayesian VAR, External Financing Premium, Default risk, Financial shocks, Generalized IRF, DSGE, default, credit spread, maturity

This paper investigates financial frictions in US postwar data to understand the interaction between the real business cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector...

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM »

Source: The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...

Food Inflation in India

Food Inflation in India »

Source: Food Inflation in India : The Role for Monetary Policy

Volume/Issue: 2014/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Ding Ding , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

ISBN: 9781484392096

Keywords: food inflation, monetary fund, inflation dynamics, real interest rate, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated red...