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Getting the Dog to Bark
			: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector

Getting the Dog to Bark : Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2015/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Irwin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513507736.001

ISBN: 9781513507736

Keywords: Implicit guarantees, fiscal risks, financial crisis, budget reports, guarantees, debt, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

Fiscal reporting is intended to warn of fiscal crises while there is still time to prevent them. The recent crisis thus seems to reveal a failure of fiscal reporting: before the crisis, even reports on fiscal risk...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576443.001

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2017/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Dudine , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475569797.001

ISBN: 9781475569797

Keywords: Tax elasticity, Tax systems, Time series, Tax revenues, Low-income developing countries, Developed countries, Business cycles, Emerging markets, Fiscal sustainability, Panel analysis

In this paper we provide short- and long-run tax buoyancy estimates for 107 countries (distributed between advanced, emerging and low-income) for the period 1980-2014. By means of Fully-Modified OLS and (Pooled) Me...

Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries
			: The Case of Suriname

Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries : The Case of Suriname »

Volume/Issue: 2014/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda , and Mario Mansilla

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498364614.001

ISBN: 9781498364614

Keywords: Natural Resource Wealth, Optimal Fiscal Consolidation, Fiscal Targets, mineral, fiscal consolidation, fiscal position, fiscal tightening, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then pres...

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Florian Misch , Brian Olden , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Lamya Kejji

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325933.001

ISBN: 9781484325933

Keywords: Fiscal policy, JEL Classification Numbers: E01, E32, H68 Keywords: Nowcashing, Real-time data, Nowcasting, Nowcashing, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innov...

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance
			: An Empirical Analysis of Spain's Regions

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance : An Empirical Analysis of Spain's Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2017/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mar Delgado-Téllez , Victor Lledo , and Javier Pérez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475569841.001

ISBN: 9781475569841

Keywords: Regional economics, State taxation, Fiscal policy, Europe, Spain, Fiscal compliance, rules, fiscal federalism, soft budget constraints, Forecasts of Budgets

This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is appli...

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vincent Belinga , Dora Benedek , Ruud A. Mooij , and John Norregaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498305075.001

ISBN: 9781498305075

Keywords: Tax buoyancy, Error Correction Model, total tax revenue, tax revenues, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run t...

The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean

The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2012/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charles Amo Yartey , Machiko Narita , Garth Peron Nicholls , and Joel Chiedu Okwuokei

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557754967.001

ISBN: 9781557754967

Keywords: public debt, fiscal consolidation efforts, fiscal performance, fiscal adjustment, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important po...

Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries

Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries »

Source: Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries : The Case of Suriname

Volume/Issue: 2014/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda , and Mario Mansilla

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 July 2014

ISBN: 9781498364614

Keywords: Natural Resource Wealth, Optimal Fiscal Consolidation, Fiscal Targets, mineral, fiscal consolidation, fiscal position, fiscal tightening, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then pres...

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis*

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis* »

Source: Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2017/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Florian Misch , Brian Olden , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Lamya Kejji

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484325933

Keywords: Fiscal policy, JEL Classification Numbers: E01, E32, H68 Keywords: Nowcashing, Real-time data, Nowcasting, Nowcashing, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innov...