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Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Source: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel »

Source: How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

Volume/Issue: 2017/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Dudine , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475569797

Keywords: Tax elasticity, Tax systems, Time series, Tax revenues, Low-income developing countries, Developed countries, Business cycles, Emerging markets, Fiscal sustainability, Panel analysis

In this paper we provide short- and long-run tax buoyancy estimates for 107 countries (distributed between advanced, emerging and low-income) for the period 1980-2014. By means of Fully-Modified OLS and (Pooled) Me...

The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations

The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations »

Volume/Issue: 2015/21

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Kamil Dybczak , Vitor Gaspar , Sanjeev Gupta , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513544885.006

ISBN: 9781513544885

Keywords: Demographic transition, Population growth, Aging, Human fertility, Mortality, Migrations, Labor markets, Health care spending, Public debt, Fiscal sustainability

This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 perc...

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/10

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Raphael Espinoza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498379205.006

ISBN: 9781498379205

Keywords: Economic growth, Public investment, Public debt, debt, investment, financial crisis, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

What considerations should guide public debt policy going forward? Should debt be reduced to achieve normative anchors (such as 60 percent of GDP), should it be increased further to finance a big public investment...

Prevention and Management of Government Arrears

Prevention and Management of Government Arrears »

Volume: 14

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): Suzanne Flynn , and Mario Pessoa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498313650.005

ISBN: 9781498313650

Keywords: Arrears, Public finance, Public financial management, commitment controls, government expenditure, treasury, expenditure, goods, stock, General

The accumulation of government expenditure arrears is one of the most common problems in public financial management. This technical note defines expenditure arrears and the different types of arrears that arise. T...

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh »

Volume/Issue: 2015/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513551081.001

ISBN: 9781513551081

Keywords: exchange rate, fiscal risks, guarantees, debt, exchange, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt, guarantees.,

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rat...

Demographic Changes in Latin America
			: The Good, the Bad and …

Demographic Changes in Latin America : The Good, the Bad and … »

Volume/Issue: 2017/94

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Santiago Acosta Ormaechea , Marco Espinosa-Vega , and Diego Wachs

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 April 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475594775.001

ISBN: 9781475594775

Keywords: Aging, Government expenditures and health, public pension spending, public healthcare spending, pension system reforms, Social Security and Public Pensions, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile,...

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2013/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484394502.001

ISBN: 9781484394502

Keywords: Real time data, Cross-sectional dependence, Heterogeneous panels, public debt, fiscal stance, budget deficits, fiscal variables, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset...

Finland's Public Sector Balance Sheet
			: A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance

Finland's Public Sector Balance Sheet : A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance »

Volume/Issue: 2018/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maren Brede , and Christian Henn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484349885.001

ISBN: 9781484349885

Keywords: Finland, Debt sustainability, Europe, Public Sector Balance Sheet, Intertemporal Fiscal Balances, General, Social Security and Public Pensions, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

We construct a comprehensive public sector balance sheet for Finland from 2000 to 2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and public pensions. We show that exposure to v...

Fiscal Sustainability
			: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed

Fiscal Sustainability : A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed »

Volume/Issue: 2013/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381991.001

ISBN: 9781484381991

Keywords: Intertemporal solvency, tax smoothing, debt stabilization, fiscal rule, stochastic simulation, fiscal adjustment, budget constraint, Deficit, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA sho...