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Growth Determinants Revisited

Growth Determinants Revisited »

Source: Growth Determinants Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2009/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides , and Alin Mirestean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

ISBN: 9781451874136

Keywords: growth regressions, Bayesian Model Averaging, dynamic panel estimation, limited information estimation, probability, econometrics, probabilities, equation, growth model,

This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data...

Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty

Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty »

Source: Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty : Is Africa Different?

Volume/Issue: 2005/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860375

Keywords: growth regressions, Bayesian model averaging, dynamic panel estimation, debt, probability, samples, debt service, external debt, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Av...

Growth in East Asia

Growth in East Asia »

Source: Growth in East Asia : What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From it

Volume/Issue: 1995/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Sarel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1995

ISBN: 9781451852080

Keywords: growth rates, economic growth, growth rate, growth accounting, estimation period

This paper examines the different arguments raised by the studies that addressed the East Asian growth experience. The original arguments presented in this paper are all on the negative side, highlighting problems...

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy »

Source: How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy : Nowcasting an Emerging Market

Volume/Issue: 2015/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhat Solmaz , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513598987

Keywords: Nowcasting, Bayesian estimation, VAR, Emerging Market, economy, domestic economy, risk, economies, external factors, Bayesian Analysis

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial sho...

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? »

Source: How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

Volume/Issue: 1999/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hong Liang , C. McDermott , and Paul Cashin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 1999

ISBN: 9781451850284

Keywords: Commodity prices, median-unbiased estimation, shock persistence, price stabilization, time series, export earnings, confidence interval, confidence intervals

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasti...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869101.001

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...

A Closer Look at Sectoral Financial Linkages in Brazil I

A Closer Look at Sectoral Financial Linkages in Brazil I »

Volume/Issue: 2016/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Izabela Karpowicz , Fabian Lipinsky , and Jongho Park

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536880.001

ISBN: 9781513536880

Keywords: balance sheet analysis, DSGE Bayesian estimation, emerging economies, equity, share, balance sheet, balance sheets, debt, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Business Cycles

Understanding the interplay between firms’ balance sheets and the macro-economic environment is important for understanding of the Brazilian economy. A close examination of developments in the nonfinancial corporat...

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam »

Volume/Issue: 2015/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , and Jochen M. Schmittmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513595665.001

ISBN: 9781513595665

Keywords: Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, interest rates, monetary policy rule, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and...

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana »

Volume/Issue: 2010/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Jihad Dagher , Ondrej Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Ali Alichi , and Marshall Mills

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451962444.001

ISBN: 9781451962444

Keywords: inflation, central bank, low inflation, Model Construction and Estimation

A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss fun...

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2010/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Cheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455202157.001

ISBN: 9781455202157

Keywords: Implied risk-neutral density functions, market expectations, probability, kurtosis, equation, probability density, standard deviation, Estimation,

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset...