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Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market

Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market »

Source: Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market

Volume/Issue: 2017/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Xiaoyu Huang , Tao Jin , and W. Raphael Lam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484324813

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Macroprudential Policy, Central banks and their policies, China real estate market, housing bubbles, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Housing Supply and Markets, Bayesian Analysis

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks...

Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy

Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy »

Source: Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy

Volume/Issue: 2012/83

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vadim Khramov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502350

Keywords: Monetary DSGE Models, Indeterminacy, monetary policy rule, interest rates, capital, inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Model Evaluation and Selection, Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium,

The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of ca...

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 »

Source: An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

Volume/Issue: 2012/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Subir Lall , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463933203

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, fixed exchange rate regime, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...

Bayesian Vars

Bayesian Vars »

Source: Bayesian Vars : A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Volume/Issue: 2003/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matteo Ciccarelli , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852639

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Gibbs sampling, Time- Varying Reaction Function, EMS, forecasting, equation, monetary policy, outliers, covariance, Bayesian Analysis

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology origi...

Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account »

Source: Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

Volume/Issue: 2004/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jacques Miniane , and Benoît Mercereau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2004

ISBN: 9781451852929

Keywords: present value model, model evaluation, correlation, probability, covariance, statistic, Bayesian Analysis, Model Evaluation and Selection, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditiona...

The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy

The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy »

Source: The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy : Further Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2003/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856910

Keywords: Price Puzzle, New Keynesian Models, Bayesian Methods, nominal interest rate, central bank, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Simulation Methods, Price-Puzzle,

This paper estimates the importance of the cost channel of monetary policy in a New Keynesian model of the business cycle. A model with nominal rigidities is extended by assuming that a fraction of firms need to bo...

Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns

Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns »

Source: Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns

Volume/Issue: 2003/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Catão , and Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451847277

Keywords: Diversification, Risk, Volatility States, Regime Switching, correlations, probabilities, stock returns, covariances, correlation, Bayesian Analysis

A perennial question in international finance is to what extent stock returns are influenced by country-location, as opposed to industry-affiliation, factors. This paper develops a novel methodology to measure thes...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

Determinants of Growth Spells

Determinants of Growth Spells »

Source: Determinants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different?

Volume/Issue: 2012/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

ISBN: 9781475510225

Keywords: International Growth, survival analysis, robustness, Bayesian Model Averaging, terms of trade, inflation, trade growth, per capita income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine...