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System Priors for Econometric Time Series

System Priors for Econometric Time Series »

Volume/Issue: 2016/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , and Miroslav Plašil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475555820.001

ISBN: 9781475555820

Keywords: Time series, system priors, Bayesian analysis, Methodological Issues: General, Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation

The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool t...

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2011/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455270484.001

ISBN: 9781455270484

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE models, emerging economies, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, interest rates, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the...

The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy
			: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?

The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy : Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time? »

Volume/Issue: 2002/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matteo Ciccarelli , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847529.001

ISBN: 9781451847529

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, European monetary policy, Gibbs sampling, Heterogeneity, Transmission mechanism, inflation, central bank, monetary transmission, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Bayesian Analysis

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the four largest euro area countries by means Bayesian estimation of dynamic econometric models. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, Fran...

Macrofinancial Analysis in the World Economy

Macrofinancial Analysis in the World Economy »

Source: Macrofinancial Analysis in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Volume/Issue: 2015/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513537429

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Macroprudential policy analysis, Spillover analysis, Forecasting, World economy, Bayesian econometrics, financial variables, demand, risk

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and rea...

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets »

Source: Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets : A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2004/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Rebucci , and Marco Rossi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2004

ISBN: 9781451874730

Keywords: Bayesian Learning, Credibility, Mixing Estimation, inflation, monetary policy, inflation process, inflation rate, inflation targeting, Bayesian Analysis, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding...

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S »

Source: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S

Volume/Issue: 2010/243

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Susan Yang , and Nora Traum

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209439

Keywords: Monetary and Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions, New Keynesian Models, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, monetary authority, nominal interest rate, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

A New Keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is fit to various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. Data in...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2010/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9781455201358

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, inflation, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structu...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2009/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873856

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, world economy, panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, price inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Volume/Issue: 2013/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484314609

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, domestic demand, terms of trade, current account balance, output growth, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynami...