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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Source: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584097.001

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Okun's Law
			: Fit at 50?

Okun's Law : Fit at 50? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , Daniel Leigh , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574265.001

ISBN: 9781475574265

Keywords: Unemploymnent, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s law, Economic fluctuations, employment, recession, unemployment rate, jobless, Economic fluctuations.,

This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law isa strong and stable relationship in m...

Okun's Law

Okun's Law »

Source: Okun's Law : Fit at 50?

Volume/Issue: 2013/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , Daniel Leigh , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475574265

Keywords: Unemploymnent, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s law, Economic fluctuations, employment, recession, unemployment rate, jobless, Economic fluctuations.,

This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law isa strong and stable relationship in m...

Oil and the World Economy
			: Some Possible Futures

Oil and the World Economy : Some Possible Futures »

Volume/Issue: 2012/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Kumhof , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475586640.001

ISBN: 9781475586640

Keywords: Hubbert&;amp;#x2019;s Peak, externalities, oil exporters, exporters, oil importers, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Demand and Supply, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development,

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-s...

Oil and the World Economy

Oil and the World Economy »

Source: Oil and the World Economy : Some Possible Futures

Volume/Issue: 2012/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Kumhof , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475586640

Keywords: Hubbert&;amp;#x2019;s Peak, externalities, oil exporters, exporters, oil importers, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Demand and Supply, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development,

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-s...

The Future of Oil

The Future of Oil »

Source: The Future of Oil : Geology Versus Technology

Volume/Issue: 2012/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcelle Chauvet , Jack Selody , Douglas Laxton , Michael Kumhof , Jaromir Benes , Ondrej Kamenik , and Susanna Mursula

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503302

Keywords: Hubbert&;amp;#x2019;s Peak, Bayesian econometrics, oil supply, oil demand, world oil production, Bayesian Analysis, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development,

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil out...

The Future of Oil
			: Geology Versus Technology

The Future of Oil : Geology Versus Technology »

Volume/Issue: 2012/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcelle Chauvet , Jack Selody , Douglas Laxton , Michael Kumhof , Jaromir Benes , Ondrej Kamenik , and Susanna Mursula

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503302.001

ISBN: 9781475503302

Keywords: Hubbert&;amp;#x2019;s Peak, Bayesian econometrics, oil supply, oil demand, world oil production, Bayesian Analysis, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development,

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil out...

Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation

Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation »

Source: Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2012/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Seok Park

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931193

Keywords: Central bank&;amp;#x2019;s balance sheet, Fiscal theory of price level, Quasi-fiscal policy, central bank, fiscal authority,

Although central banks have recently taken unconventional policy actions to try to shore up macroeconomic and financial stability, little theory is available to assess the consequences of such measures. This paper...

Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation

Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Seok Park

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463931193.001

ISBN: 9781463931193

Keywords: Central bank&;amp;#x2019;s balance sheet, Fiscal theory of price level, Quasi-fiscal policy, central bank, fiscal authority,

Although central banks have recently taken unconventional policy actions to try to shore up macroeconomic and financial stability, little theory is available to assess the consequences of such measures. This paper...