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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence†

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence† »

Source: Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2015/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513500805

Keywords: capital inflows, bonds, bond, return, domestic bonds, All Countries, apital inflows,

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead t...

ASEAN Financial Integration1 2

ASEAN Financial Integration1 2 »

Source: ASEAN Financial Integration

Volume/Issue: 2015/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geert Almekinders , Alex Mourmouras , Jianping Zhou , Satoshi Fukuda , and Yong Sarah Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

ISBN: 9781484386491

Keywords: Economic growth, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Capital flows, Capital account liberalization, Economic integration, Financial integration, Indonesia

The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN's financial integratio...

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Volume/Issue: 2015/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513551081

Keywords: exchange rate, fiscal risks, guarantees, debt, exchange, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt, guarantees.,

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rat...

Asset Bubbles

Asset Bubbles »

Source: Asset Bubbles : Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management

Volume/Issue: 2015/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bradley Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 February 2015

ISBN: 9781475576207

Keywords: markets, financial markets, balance sheet, returns, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles, Asset Pricing, Government Policy and Regulation,

In distilling a vast literature spanning the rational- irrational divide, this paper offers reflections on why asset bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informati...

Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation? »

Source: Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

Volume/Issue: 2015/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anton Korinek , and Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513506463

Keywords: pecuniary externalities, macroprudential regulation, inequality, exchange rate, exchange, lenders, borrowers, markets, International Lending and Debt Problems, Open Economy Macroeconomics

International capital flows can create significant financial instability in emerging economies because of pecuniary externalities associated with exchange rate movements. Does this make it optimal to impose capital...

China’s Growth

China’s Growth »

Source: China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Volume/Issue: 2015/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wojciech Maliszewski , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513504643

Keywords: potential growth, output gap, production, investment, inflation, credit, potential output, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflat...

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1 »

Source: China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility : Is World Growth Losing Out?

Volume/Issue: 2016/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513590455

Keywords: China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, Global VAR, volatility, market volatility, financial market, trade, global financial market, Time-Series Models

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks,...

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility »

Source: Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Volume/Issue: 2016/12

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tidiane Kinda , Montfort Mlachila , and Rasmané Ouedraogo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2016

ISBN: 9781498328722

Keywords: financial sector fragility, commodity, price, commodity price, prices, financial sector, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation, All Countries

This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to c...

Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America1

Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America1 »

Source: Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2015/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos , Herman Kamil , and Bennett Sutton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2015

ISBN: 9781498307802

Keywords: Bond issuance, corporate leverage, bond, debt, markets, issuance, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Easy global liquidity conditions, stronger risk appetite and a retrenchment in cross-border bank lending led to a surge in emerging market firms' bond issuance in international markets (what we term 'The Bon(d)anza...

Correcting “Beyond the Cycle:” Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances1

Correcting “Beyond the Cycle:” Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances1 »

Source: Correcting 'Beyond the Cycle" : Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances

Volume/Issue: 2015/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Estelle Liu , Todd Mattina , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513520551

Keywords: asset price, equity market, housing market, panel data econometrics, prices, price, equity, Asset Pricing, Deficit, panel data econometrics.,

This paper outlines an operational approach for incorporating the impact of asset price cycles in the calculation of structural fiscal balances (SFBs). The global financial crisis demonstrated that movements in ass...