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The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
1. Grenada’s economy grew strongly prior to the COVID-19 shock, supported by the implementation of important reforms and favorable external conditions. Real GDP growth averaged 4.5 percent during 2014-19, driven by agriculture, tourism, and construction, and spillovers from the long U.S. expansion. The successful implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Framework (FRF) helped address fiscal imbalances, boosted confidence, and underpinned an impressive reduction in public debt. An updated tax incentives regime helped attract foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Although still high, the poverty rate fell to 25 percent (from 38 percent in 2008) and unemployment declined to 15.4 percent in 2019.
Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility; Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada;
Second Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras