This Selected Issues paper on Estonia examines impact of assessing competitiveness and exposure to shocks integrating global value chains (GVCs). This paper strengthens the analytical underpinnings of competitiveness assessments and exposure to shocks by incorporating GVCs. Standard real effective exchange rates (REER) indexes assume trade is only in final goods. However, like most European economies, Estonia is highly integrated into GVCs. This implies that assessments of competitiveness should consider trade in value added. Based on a structural model, the paper assesses competitiveness and exposure to trade shocks accounting for the GVC participation in Estonia. The analysis using a REER index considering the GVC architecture suggests potential competitiveness problems in Estonia. The paper also estimates the impact of overvaluation (and appreciation) of the GVC related REER measure on value added export and real GDP growth and finds observable effects. Further, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have important costs for value added produced in Estonia.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper quantifies the effect of gender inequality in Morocco on growth, compared with groups of faster growing countries. The results highlight the effect of closing the overall gender gap, which would help narrow up to 1 percentage point the difference between Morocco’s GDP per capita and that of benchmark countries in other regions. Simulations also show that gradually closing gender gaps in the labor force participation rate could lead to significant income gains over the long term. Policy recommendations to promote gender equality include investing in secondary education for women and in infrastructure and reforming tax policies and laws that discriminate against women.
The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: 'A New Look at Bank Capital' (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and 'Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses 'Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.' A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
La croissance en Afrique subsaharienne a ralenti, après plus d'une décennie de croissance robuste, bien que ce tableau masque des disparités importantes dans la région. Certains pays ont particulièrement souffert de la chute des cours de leurs principaux produits d'exportation. Les pays exportateurs de pétrole, dont le Nigéria et l'Angola, ont été durement touchés par la baisse des recettes et les ajustements budgétaires correspondants, et des pays à revenu intermédiaire tels que l'Afrique du Sud, le Ghana et la Zambie se heurtent également à des conditions défavorables. Ce rapport d'octobre 2015 examine les ajustements que ces pays devront apporter à leurs politiques budgétaires et monétaires pour s'adapter à ce nouvel environnement. Le chapitre 2 s'intéresse à la compétitivité de la région : il analyse l'importante intégration commerciale qui a accompagné la récente période de forte croissance et examine les mesures qui pourraient soutenir de nouvelles sources de croissance. Le chapitre 3 se penche sur les implications de la persistance de fortes inégalités de revenus et entre les sexes en Afrique subsaharienne, et envisage des mesures pour y remédier.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.