The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Monetary policy in the Philippines has had multiple objectives. Moreover, shifts in money demand and the money multiplier have made base money a less reliable anchor for monetary policy. Hence, on present policies, a steady reduction in inflation is not assured, and changes to the monetary policy framework should be considered. This paper reviews the benefits as well as the constraints of an inflation targeting framework and the necessary preconditions--both in terms of the institutional infrastructure and the appropriate inflation target--for its successful implementation, including the ability to forecast inflation reasonably well over policy-relevant time horizons.
Thitipat Chansriniyom, Mr. Natan P. Epstein, and Valeriu Nalban
The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the economic development in the Philippines during the 1990s. Growth, which virtually came to a halt in the early 1990s, picked up in 1993 and accelerated steadily to almost 7 percent by end-1996, fueled by an expansion in exports and investment. At the same time, the fiscal position strengthened, inflation was successfully brought down to single digits, and with large capital inflows, particularly in 1996, gross international reserves rose to record levels. This reversal of economic fortunes was largely the result of major reforms undertaken in the past decade.