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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In a statement issued on March 8, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus announced his intention to recommend to the IMF Executive Board that it approve the revised economic program for 1999-2001 proposed by the Brazilian government. The text of News Brief 99/10 follows.
Miss Kinga Z Elo
This paper examines how capital controls affect FDI decisions and how the impact of these restrictive measures varies with different levels of country risk. We construct a model of firms' FDI decisions, broadly in Dunning's "eclectic theory" framework, using "real options" to emphasize economic uncertainty and country risk. Numerical results of the model take the form of "quality statistics" that uncover the underlying dynamics hidden in the aggregate data that is responsible for the low performance of recent empirical studies. We find that increasing levels of capital controls reduce the life-span of FDI investments at each level of country risk and foreign investors' willingness towards risk sharing increases. We reveal a significant interaction between capital control and country risk, resulting in a nonlinear relationship between these and the volatility and volume statistics. We estimate a standard cross-sectional model that provides strong support for our theoretical findings.
International Monetary Fund
This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1993 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period. Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201
Mr. Alexander Lehmann
Based on U.S. data, the returns on foreign direct investment in emerging markets are shown to be substantially higher than would be suggested by official balance of payments statistics. This paper identifies the determinants of FDI profitability in 43 industrialized and developing countries. After financial leverage and the effect of tax minimizing income transfers are controlled for, host country risk and market openness are found to raise affiliate returns on equity and returns on sales. In the context of a number of financial crises during the 1990s, income repatriations are shown to be pro-cyclical, though the effect of host country recessions is mitigated through continued spending on fixed capital and a re-direction of affiliate sales towards export markets.
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, Mr. Karl F Habermeier, Mr. Luc Laeven, Mr. Marcos d Chamon, Miss Mahvash S Qureshi, and Annamaria Kokenyne
En la serie de Documentos de Análisis del Personal Técnico del FMI se presentan los últimos análisis e investigaciones sobre políticas elaborados por miembros del personal técnico del FMI, que se publican para recibir comentarios y fomentar el debate. Estos documentos generalmente son breves y están escritos en un lenguaje no técnico, ya que se dirigen a un público amplio interesado en temas de política económica. Esta serie solo se publica en la página web y reemplazó en enero de 2011 a la serie de Notas de Opinión del Personal Técnico del FMI.
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, Mr. Karl F Habermeier, Mr. Luc Laeven, Mr. Marcos d Chamon, Miss Mahvash S Qureshi, and Annamaria Kokenyne
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

In a statement issued on March 8, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus announced his intention to recommend to the IMF Executive Board that it approve the revised economic program for 1999-2001 proposed by the Brazilian government. The text of News Brief 99/10 follows.