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International Monetary Fund

The global financial crisis unmasked Serbia’s unsustainable pre-crisis growth model. Looking back, the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) provided effective insurance against a financial meltdown, initiated the needed re-balancing of the economy, but could not prevent large job losses. Looking ahead, the transition to a more sustainable growth model remains incomplete and fragile. The export-led recovery is expected to continue picking up steam, but labor market conditions will remain difficult. The current account deficit is expected to remain relatively high, requiring significant capital inflows to maintain external balance.

International Monetary Fund

This paper discusses Mali’s 2005 Article IV Consultation and Second and Third Reviews Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The PRGF-supported program is broadly on track. Performance on quantitative aspects remains strong. Although the record on the structural program has been disappointing, the program for 2006 would mark significant progress on addressing key challenges. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the second and third reviews under the arrangement and waivers for nonobservance of three structural performance criteria.

International Monetary Fund
The global financial crisis unmasked Serbia’s unsustainable pre-crisis growth model. Looking back, the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) provided effective insurance against a financial meltdown, initiated the needed re-balancing of the economy, but could not prevent large job losses. Looking ahead, the transition to a more sustainable growth model remains incomplete and fragile. The export-led recovery is expected to continue picking up steam, but labor market conditions will remain difficult. The current account deficit is expected to remain relatively high, requiring significant capital inflows to maintain external balance.
Vicente Tuesta, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Mr. Pau Rabanal
A puzzle in international macroeconomics is that observed real exchange rates are highly volatile. Standard international real business cycle (IRBC) models cannot reproduce this fact. We show that TFP processes for the U.S. and the "rest of the world," is characterized by a vector error correction (VECM) and that adding cointegrated technology shocks to the standard IRBC model helps explaining the observed high real exchange rate volatility. Also we show that the observed increase of the real exchange rate volatility with respect to output in the last 20 year can be explained by changes in the parameter of the VECM.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

At a press conference following the IMFC meeting, IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler said that it was premature to decide on the timing of any staff visit to Iraq, but added that “there is an understanding that the World Bank and the IMF should prepare themselves and should take up this task.” This will represent the first official contact between Iraq and the IMF in many years. Iraq has been a member of the IMF since 1945, but the last Article IV consultation (annual discussion between the IMF and a member country on the general health of the economy) was completed in 1980; its 1983 consultation was prepared, but never completed. Although Iraq does not have any outstanding loans from the IMF, it does have arrears of close to $72 million (slightly over SDR 52 million) on its use of SDRs.