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International Monetary Fund
The Moldovan economy is recovering steadily following the recession triggered by the global crisis. The key challenge is to ensure fiscal, financial, and external sustainability while igniting new engines of growth. Monetary policy strikes the right balance between keeping inflation low and supporting the recovery. The monetary policy framework could benefit from more flexibility. Stepping up exports is a key to achieving high and sustainable growth over the medium term. Bringing the energy sector to financial sustainability should remain high on the government’s agenda.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on the Republic of Moldova constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities in response to their request for TA. The mission recommended that the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) play the lead role in the production of financial balance sheet statistics (FABS). Coordination of the activities of the agencies involved in the project is key to its success. In addition, the mission recommended that the NBM create a higher level group to act as a monitoring committee. The role of this group should be to ensure that the work of the interagency group is proceeding satisfactorily and on time, and to resolve any conceptual or practical issues that the technical group cannot agree on. It should meet at least twice a year, however, may need to meet more often in the earlier part of the project. The NBM agreed with the plan, which aims to compile and FABS publish annual and quarterly by March 2022. By March 2020, the NBM will generate sector annual financial balance sheet data for the 2015–2018 period using existing data. The report recommends organizing a seminar for compilers, the objective is to explain the goal of FABS, present the challenge and the methodology.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Moldova and its Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements. Moldova’s economic growth remained solid in the first three quarters of 2019, with output expanding nearly 5 percent, supported by strong domestic demand. The three-year program has been broadly successful in achieving its objectives. Comprehensive reforms have rehabilitated the banking system and strengthened financial sector governance, entrenching macrofinancial stability. Prudent and well-coordinated policies are needed to safeguard the progress achieved. Decisive governance and institutional reforms are necessary for faster, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Safeguarding central bank independence is a priority. The inflation-targeting (IT) regime remains appropriate, but additional efforts are needed to improve policy credibility, promote exchange rate flexibility, and disincentivize foreign currency intermediation. Widespread governance and institutional vulnerabilities are major impediments to accelerating income convergence. Addressing these could have significant growth dividends through faster capital accumulation, reduced labor and human capital headwinds from emigration, and higher productivity.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on Moldova’s 2014 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Moldova largely achieved the main objectives of the economic program supported by a combined Extended Credit Facility/Extended Fund Facility (ECF/EFF). The country’s economic performance was among the strongest in the region during 2010–2013. This was made possible by adequate macroeconomic stabilization measures and ambitious structural reforms implemented in the wake of the crisis under the IMF-supported program. The Moldovan economy recovered strongly from the drought-related contraction of 2012, but activity will significantly slow in 2014 owing to a moderation in agriculture production and related industries and weaker economic activity in main trading partners.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Moldova’s economic growth, at 3.6 percent, came in surprisingly strong in the first half of 2015 and was largely driven by net exports. Reserves fell by about a third between October 2014 and February 2015, but have been stable since. Net outflows in the financial account surged at end-2014, owing to election uncertainty and the banking crisis, but the outflow in currency and deposits tapered off in the second quarter of 2015. The near-term outlook is difficult. The economy is projected to contract by 1.75 percent in 2015, followed by a marginal recovery of about 1.5 percent in 2016. Deep reform is needed in the financial sector.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Moldova is expected to be about 3 percent in 2018. Inflation is forecast to return to target in 2018, following a pickup in 2017. The banking sector has been stable, the fiscal performance has improved and Moldova’s external position has strengthened. The outlook, however, is still subject to substantial risks. The program is broadly on track, but continued reform efforts are needed to accelerate growth and improve living standards. Important progress has been made toward cleansing the financial sector, though with delay, including by strengthening supervisory and regulatory frameworks and increasing management and ownership transparency.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek and Mr. Julian Berengaut
The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

This Technical Assistance report on the Republic of Moldova constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities in response to their request for TA. The mission recommended that the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) play the lead role in the production of financial balance sheet statistics (FABS). Coordination of the activities of the agencies involved in the project is key to its success. In addition, the mission recommended that the NBM create a higher level group to act as a monitoring committee. The role of this group should be to ensure that the work of the interagency group is proceeding satisfactorily and on time, and to resolve any conceptual or practical issues that the technical group cannot agree on. It should meet at least twice a year, however, may need to meet more often in the earlier part of the project. The NBM agreed with the plan, which aims to compile and FABS publish annual and quarterly by March 2022. By March 2020, the NBM will generate sector annual financial balance sheet data for the 2015–2018 period using existing data. The report recommends organizing a seminar for compilers, the objective is to explain the goal of FABS, present the challenge and the methodology.

Robert W. Edwards and Michael C. Deppler

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—data module—provides an assessment of Moldova’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that Moldova meets GDDS recommendations for all disseminated statistics with one exception: the nonavailability of data on external public and publicly guaranteed debt service schedule. It also meets, and exceeds in most respects, the recommendations for periodicity and timeliness.