This Second Progress Report on Tajikistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) discusses key developments in the status and dynamics of poverty-related indicators in the country during 2004. Although economic growth has generated significant reductions in poverty rates in the past years, the report concludes that people’s livelihoods have not changed drastically. Income poverty remains high. People’s access to energy, water, communications, education, and health services remains highly problematic. This report also reviews the government’s macroeconomic management performance and discusses institutional shortfalls affecting the poverty reduction effort.
The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper discusses socioeconomic development in the Republic of Tajikistan. Although poverty reduction in rural areas is proceeding at a faster pace than in urban areas, poverty continues to be a predominantly rural phenomenon. In addition to improving the gender equality situation, there are still pressing issues related to equal access for men and women to education and land use, to the decision-making process, and to employment.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Republic of Tajikistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper discusses economic development and policies. The authorities are working on enhancing Tajikistan’s investment climate through a range of measures, including through eliminating unnecessary licenses and inspections, cutting the number of mandatory standards and easing certification procedures, strengthening property rights, and improving infrastructural services. Reforming the management of Barki Tajik and ensuring the transparency and accountability of operations are critical.
Tajikistan was hit by severe external shocks in 2009. The government plans to address the structural energy deficit and achieve energy independence. Tajikistan should proceed with care on the Roghun project, paying close attention to social, macroeconomic, and debt sustainability. The need is to strike a careful balance between social and capital spending, which are complementary for growth. Macroeconomic policies are appropriate, but the weakened health of the banking sector and of state-owned enterprises needs to be addressed urgently.
The Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2010–12 aims to serve as a medium-term program for the implementation of the National Development Strategy up to 2015. It will determine the major socioeconomic development of the country during this period, taking into account the impact of the global economic and financial crisis. The PRS, taking into account available resources and additional needs, indicates concrete actions for implementing institutional and economic reforms.
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Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Jerald A Schiff, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Roland Daumont
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Zidong An, Tayeb Ghazi, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, and Mr. Aomar Ibourk
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and job creation in developing economies with a focus on low and lower middle-income countries along two dimensions: growth patterns and short-run correlations. Analysis on growth patterns shows that regime changes are quite common in both economic growth and employment growth, yet they are not synchronized with each other. Okun’s Law—the short-run relationship between output and labor market—holds in half of the countries in our sample and shows considerable cross-country heterogeneity.
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, Hans Weisfeld, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, Mr. Martin Schindler, Mr. Nikola Spatafora, and Mr. Andrew Berg
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.