Mr. R. B. Johnston, Mrs. Piroska M Nagy, Mr. Roy Pepper, Mr. Mauro Mecagni, Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Mario I. Bléjer, and Mr. Richard J Hides
This study reviews Albania's historical and political background, as well as economic developments in 1991. It describes the centrally planned economic system up to the onset of reform and analyzes economic performance in the 1980s.
This paper examines Romania’s external stability risks. Recent Romanian data indicate high increases in real wages, not matched by comparable productivity gains. Both the government and the National Bank of Romania (NBR) have highlighted the importance of a responsible and stabilizing wage policy for macroeconomic stability in the country current juncture. A three-pronged approach is recommended that encompasses capacity building and improved transparency, a medium-term framework for fiscal policy, and increased use of independent fiscal expertise.
This paper discusses the following important issues related to the Romanian economy: inflation and inflation expectations, the need to bolster expenditure efficiency, minimum wage policy, and financial sector development. Headline inflation has decreased markedly in Romania in recent years. Key factors in this trend were oil and food price developments and, in particular, the recent reduction in the VAT rate. Romania has undertaken a strong fiscal consolidation since 2010, which reduced expenditure to among the lowest in the region. Minimum wages in Romania have risen sharply, which could directly affect wage distribution and improve income inequality.
This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that it allows the systematic and rapid analysis of different policy options. The model embodies the key principle that, in an inflation-targeting framework, the role of monetary policy is to provide an anchor for inflation and inflation expectations. The development and calibration of this model is an ongoing process.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix provides an estimate of the long-term path of Romania’s real exchange rate. The paper describes the recent history of the real exchange rate and its main determinants. A model is developed of a time-varying long-term exchange rate path, mainly driven by the terms of trade and net foreign direct investment. This long-term path is then used to assess the developments in Romania’s actual exchange rate. The paper also examines Romania’s growth potential in the medium term.
Romania has made significant progress in stabilization and reform. Executive Directors welcomed this development, and stressed the need to maintain monetary and fiscal policies, and accelerate structural reforms. They welcomed the fiscal strengthening and progress in bank restructuring and privatization. Nevertheless, they called for strict adherence to the macroeconomic policy targets and intensified efforts in the areas of bank reform and enterprise privatization, and considered that greater clarity in the framework and objectives of monetary policy would be helpful.