This paper examines the effects of Fund-supported programs initiated during 2002-11, with special emphasis on programs started after the onset of the recent global economic crisis. The paper investigates the effects of Fund-supported programs on key macroeconomic variables and, data restrictions permitting, on social variables (social government spending, unemployment and social outcome indicators). Further, it analyzes the contribution of fiscal and external accommodation in helping program countries get through the recent global crisis. The assessment of the impact of Fund-supported programs is necessarily incomplete to the extent that the global financial crisis is ongoing and the most recent crisis programs such as the March 2012 program for Greece are not included. The Crisis Program Review provides detailed analysis of recent GRA-supported programs.
Over the past three years, the IMF has worked to assist members in addressing the repercussions of the global financial crisis while also tackling gaps in its surveillance framework that the crisis laid bare. This reform agenda has drawn extensively from the recommendations of the 2008 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR), as well as subsequent IMF and IEO reviews of the Fund's performance in the run-up to the crisis. This TSR provides an opportunity to take stock of the steps taken and to assess recent experience with surveillance.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and & Review Department
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
This paper essentially confirms the main findings of the paper previously discussed by the Board. It (i) discusses the external conditions and the domestic economic policy stance needed for a country to reaccess international Capital markets and (2) describes other considerations to reaccess markets, including a communications strategy and the design of debt instruments to regain market access.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that agreement on an important package of reforms of vital significance to the future of the international monetary system was reached at a meeting of the Interim Committee of the Board of Governors of the IMF on the International Monetary System in Kingston, Jamaica, on January 7–8, 1976. The reforms include a substantial quota increase for almost all members, as well as an increase in access to the IMF’s resources for all member countries in the period prior to implementation of the increase in their IMF quotas, and some other amendments.