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International Monetary Fund

The paper discusses the flexicurity model, its key policy elements, and association with a low unemployment rate and a high standard of social security for the unemployed. It provides details of an empirical analysis of unemployment performance and the flexicurity model. It also presents selected stylized facts about Danish housing price developments and focuses on tax treatment affecting the market. It also shows an empirical result on developments in the housing finance market and in the Danish taxation of housing.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines 2013 Cluster Consultation—a Nordic Regional IMF staff report. Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden that form the Nordic region share a set of strong economic and social institutions and policies, with emphasis on education, high income equality, high employment, innovative and competitive business environment, etc. The IMF report suggests that strong national financial sector policies and regional cooperation would help mitigate common challenges and shared risks. Cooperative regional policies, such as introducing binding macroprudential minima and clear ex ante burden-sharing arrangements are expected to help limit the costs from any large bank failures.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Norway’s economy that has a maturing oil and gas industry. Norway’s half century of good fortune from its oil and gas wealth may have peaked. Oil and gas production will continue for many decades on current projections, but output and investment have flattened out, and the spillovers from the offshore oil and gas production to the mainland economy may have turned from positive to negative. Thus far, economic policy has needed to focus on managing the windfall, and Norway’s institutions have been a model for other countries. Going forward, the challenges are expected to become more complex.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report examines the experiences of four European countries that have had large house-price declines in recent years. In particular, it examines the experiences of Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain—four countries in which the house-price cycle has been especially large and that share a similar institutional environment (a common monetary policy and the EU’s institutional framework)—with a view to exploring how policies can best support economic recovery in the wake of a house-price bust. The paper draws on and synthesizes related Selected Issues papers that are being or have been drafted as part of the 2014 Article IV consultations with these countries. These countries’ experiences share similarities, but also important differences. Shocks to house prices, unemployment, and bank balance sheets were most severe in Ireland and Spain, reflecting in part a higher amplitude of residential construction. However, the boom- bust cycle has, together with other shocks, left all four countries facing significant output gaps, as well as elevated levels of private-sector debt that pose headwinds for growth. Promoting recovery following a house-price bust requires a multi-pronged strategy. Large house-price busts can leave countries facing wide output gaps, a highly indebted private sector, and weaker bank balance sheets. Addressing these problems simultaneously can be challenging, as efforts often involve trade-offs (e.g., faster deleveraging can widen output gaps). A careful and multi-pronged strategy is thus required to minimize trade-offs and accelerate sustainable recovery. Important progress has been made in this regard in all four countries.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper elaborates findings and discussions of 2013 Cluster Consultation Nordic Regional report. The countries have close economic and financial ties and face some common challenges and shared risks, such as large banking sectors and high household debt. The economic performance of the four continental Nordic economies (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—Nordic-4) ranks among the advanced economic development circle. It is analyzed that the large Nordic banking systems support relatively high levels of private sector debt. House price developments in the Nordic-4 pose a risk to broader macroeconomic stability in the context of strained household balance sheets.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Danish economy is recovering slowly and unevenly. The economy contracted slightly in 2013, but it looks likely to accelerate modestly in 2014. Growth is held down by a trend decline in North Sea oil and gas production as well as exports to euro-area partners. At the same time, private domestic demand and non-oil exports are supporting growth. The recovery is likely to continue but remain fragile. Annual growth is estimated at 0.7 percent in 2014, projected to increase to 1.4 percent in 2015, and trend to slightly above 2 percent thereafter.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the household debt situation in Denmark and factors that have contributed to the high level of household debt in the country. Various factors seem to account for the size of household debt, including large pension assets, a highly developed mortgage market, the availability of flexible mortgage products such as deferred amortization loans, indirect subsidies through tax preferences for home ownership, and a regulated rental market that limits mobility. The paper highlights that high household debt could pose direct risks to financial stability if the number of mortgage loan defaults rises sharply in the face of adverse shocks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.