International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper examines the export performance of developing countries. Taking any recent period, for example the past 15 years, the growth rate in export earnings for individual countries has varied from substantial year-to-year increases to absolute declines. Countries with growth rates as high as 13 percent per year include Greece, Jamaica, and Peru, while at the other end of the spectrum are Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay, whose export earnings declined in absolute terms.
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Mr. Olivier J Blanchard, Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Mr. Paolo Mauro
The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, we identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the pre-crisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.
This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare 7 OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to 13 that did not. After the early 1990s, performance improved along many dimensions for both targeting and nontargeting countries. In some cases, the targeters improved by more. However, these differences are explained by the fact that targeters performed worse than nontargeters before the early 1990s, and there is regression towards the mean. Once one controls for this, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers, Mr. Arto Kovanen, and Mr. Charles Enoch
The European Monetary Institute has been working with national central banks of the European Union (EU) to prepare instruments for the operation of monetary policy in Stage 3 of European Economic and Monetary Union. Several publications describing the proposed arrangements have been issued. This paper briefly summarizes the arrangements and identifies some areas in which important decisions still have to be made or refinements introduced—including the choice of counterparties in fine-tuning open market operations; the design of reserve requirements; the signaling function of monetary operations; and payment system relationships with non-EMU participants in the EU.
In recent decades, a wide range of countries have experienced banking problems. Their approaches to systemic bank restructuring have varied substantially. This paper analyzes a representative sample of 24 countries and provides a summary of policies judged to be successful. The sample countries were ranked by relative progress in resolving banking sector problems. Based on this ranking, the paper examines the effectiveness of institutional and regulatory measures, assesses the impact of accompanying macroeconomic policies, and examines the extent to which particular restructuring instruments contributed to success. Special emphasis is given to the role of the central bank.
This paper seeks to extend discussion of monetary policy instruments to the situation of a country faced with major capital inflows when the process of domestic financial liberalization is incomplete. It briefly summarizes the recent usage of traditional monetary instruments, discusses the practical limits to classic sterilization measures as well as the pros and cons of using other supplementary measures including tax-based controls on capital inflows. It also examines the efficacy of such measures in Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Korea, Spain, and Thailand. The conclusion is that, for a time and as a transitional measure, a country may find it opportune to supplement the traditional instruments with certain “belt and braces” measures including, in some instances, indirect (tax-based) capital controls.
Janko Cizel, Jon Frost, Aerdt G. F. J. Houben, and Peter Wierts
Macroprudential policy is increasingly being implemented worldwide. Its effectiveness in influencing bank credit and its substitution effects beyond banking have been a key subject of discussion. Our empirical analysis confirms the expected effects of macroprudential policies on bank credit, both for advanced economies and emerging market economies. Yet we also find evidence of substitution effects towards nonbank credit, especially in advanced economies, reducing the policies’ effect on total credit. Quantity restrictions are particularly potent in constraining bank credit but also cause the strongest substitution effects. Policy implications indicate a need to extend macroprudential policy beyond banking, especially in advanced economies.