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This paper evaluates Tajikistan’s 2002 Article IV Consultation and a Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Tajikistan’s previous IMF-supported program went off track in mid-2001 largely because of poor progress with structural reform and weak management of external debt. To revitalize the reform process, the authorities satisfactorily implemented a Staff-Monitored Program that covered the first half of 2002. The IMF staff commends the authorities for the progress in economic areas realized over the past few years, and supports the authorities' request for a new three-year PRGF arrangement.
1. Tajikistan is the poorest of the eight Central Asian and Caucuses (CCA) countries. The 1990’s civil war caused a large decline in output and income. Subsequently, output and incomes have grown significantly, but income per capita growth has lagged other CCA oil importers. President Rahmon has led the government since 1994 and the next presidential elections will be in 2020.
1. Tajikistan has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the last two decades.1 With many households having a family member working abroad, remittances remain high at around 30 percent of GDP. These inflows offset persistent low employment and underpin consumption and growth. Despite gains in poverty reduction, Tajikistan still ranks relatively low on the 2020 Human Development Index. Moreover, the economy has remained undiversified with a narrow export base—primarily cotton, aluminum, and increasingly gold.