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  • Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian) x
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Peter T. Knight, Robert Roy Schneider, Subimal Mookerjee, Bahram Nowzad, and Jozef Van’t dack

This paper examines the impact of the World Bank on the financial markets and developing countries. The sound financial structure of the Bank rests on its conservative loan-to-capital ratio. Its large liquidity is an assurance to investors in Bank bonds that their investments are assured of liquidity in case the need arises. To cope with their payments difficulties, the heavily indebted developing countries have adopted more cautious fiscal and monetary policies, limited wage increases, and reduced domestic consumption and investment.

International Monetary Fund

An important aim of this paper is to take shifts in the long-term anchor in the empirical specifications. The study examines exchange-rate pass-through and external adjustment in the euro area. The impact on third-country trade and investment is also discussed. A better understanding of the economic behavior underlying limited pass-through is an important consideration for investigating the implications of currency fluctuations and the pattern of external adjustment. The impulse-response patterns suggest a high degree of local currency pricing in import prices and producer currency pricing in export prices.

Mr. Charles Adams and Mr. Bankim Chadha

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for France provides an analytical framework to explain the consequences of the downward shift in the unemployment/wages relationship. This framework is also used to analyze possible changes in the equilibrium unemployment rate resulting from cuts in employers’ social security contributions and movements in the user cost of capital. The contribution of wage moderation to the reduction in the equilibrium unemployment is quantified. The paper also addresses the question of fiscal benefits of job-rich growth in France during 1997–2000.
Zineddine Alla, Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, and Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the ‘divine coincidence’ breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker’s preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations.
Mr. Roger Farmer and Mr. Vadim Khramov
We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals. This redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms. We provide a selection method, based on Bayesian model comparison, to decide which errors to pick as fundamental and we present simulation results to show how our procedure works in practice.
Mr. Michael Sarel
This paper examines the dynamics of economic growth. First, it demonstrates that the standard neoclassical growth model with constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not consistent with the patterns of development we observe in the real world, once we consider the initial conditions. Second, it examines an alternative growth model, which is consistent with endogenously determined initial conditions and also generates dynamics that are in accord with the historical patterns of growth rates, capital flows, savings rates and labor supply. The alternative model is a generalized version of the neoclassical growth model, with increasing rates of intertemporal substitution due to a Stone-Geary type of utility.
Mr. Harm Zebregs
Since the beginning of the 1990s, foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased dramatically. The distribution of FDI flows across these countries, however, is highly uneven; only a small number attract comparatively large amounts of foreign capital. This paper investigates whether the pattern of FDI flows can be explained by the standard neoclassical model or by modified versions of this model that allow for differences in production technologies across countries. The results suggest that the standard neoclassical approach is not particularly useful if we want to understand FDI flows to developing countries.
Assaf Razin, Mr. Prakash Loungani, and Chi-Wa Yuen
Identifying determinants of the output-inflation tradeoff has long been a key issue in business cycle research. We provide evidence that in countries with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output. This result is shown to be consistent with theoretical presumption from a version of the Mundell-Fleming model. Restrictions on capital mobility are measured using the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff are taken from previous studies, viz., Lucas (1973) and Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988).
Mr. Bankim Chadha and Mr. Charles Adams
This paper examines the ability of alternative classes of growth models to explain the historical experience of the U.S. economy. The potential returns to the U.S. from raising its investment rate in terms of both the level and growth rate of future output are then quantified. The long-run growth performance of the U.S. economy is found to be broadly consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical growth model. Endogenous growth models, which suggest a larger contribution of capital to growth and long-run effects of investment on the growth rate, do not seem to be supported by the data.