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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence†

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence† »

Source: Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2015/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513500805

Keywords: capital inflows, bonds, bond, return, domestic bonds, All Countries, apital inflows,

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead t...

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2015/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513500805.001

ISBN: 9781513500805

Keywords: capital inflows, bonds, bond, return, domestic bonds, All Countries, apital inflows,

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead t...

Global Monetary Tightening

Global Monetary Tightening »

Source: Global Monetary Tightening : Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises

Volume/Issue: 2014/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Christina Kolerus , and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2014

ISBN: 9781475584691

Keywords: Debt dynamics, sovereign debt crisis, unconventional, debt, bond, interest, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies' public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global ris...

Global Monetary Tightening
			: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises

Global Monetary Tightening : Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2014/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Christina Kolerus , and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584691.001

ISBN: 9781475584691

Keywords: Debt dynamics, sovereign debt crisis, unconventional, debt, bond, interest, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies' public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global ris...

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355282.001

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt »

Volume/Issue: 2014/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , and Takahiro Tsuda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326541.001

ISBN: 9781484326541

Keywords: Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions, government debt, central bank, external funding, central banks, Finance, Portfolio Choice and Investment Decisions,

This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced ec...

Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt1

Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt1 »

Source: Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

Volume/Issue: 2014/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , and Takahiro Tsuda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2014

ISBN: 9781484326541

Keywords: Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions, government debt, central bank, external funding, central banks, Finance, Portfolio Choice and Investment Decisions,

This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced ec...

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2013/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484300589

Keywords: emerging markets., foreign exchange reserves, exchange reserves, exchange rate

The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parame...

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2013/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484300589.001

ISBN: 9781484300589

Keywords: emerging markets., foreign exchange reserves, exchange reserves, exchange rate

The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parame...