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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

New
Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles »

Volume/Issue: 2019/184

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , Lucyna Gornicka , and Alexandros Vardoulakis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511078.001

ISBN: 9781513511078

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Demand, Economic stabilization, Price indexes, Collateral constraints, rational bubbles, macroprudential regulation, optimal policy, WP

An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytic...

Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

New
Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles »

Source: Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

Volume/Issue: 2019/184

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , Lucyna Gornicka , and Alexandros Vardoulakis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513511078

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Demand, Economic stabilization, Price indexes, Collateral constraints, rational bubbles, macroprudential regulation, optimal policy, WP

An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytic...

The Negative Mean Output Gap

New
The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511740.001

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

The Negative Mean Output Gap

New
The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Source: The Negative Mean Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation »

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509853.001

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1 »

Source: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francien Berry , Brian Graf , Michael Stanger , and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508313.001

ISBN: 9781513508313

Keywords: Import price indexes, Purchasing power parity, Export price indexes, Price indexes, Real sector, Price Index, CPI, PPI, Scanner data, Big data

The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates....

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis »

Source: Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2019/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francien Berry , Brian Graf , Michael Stanger , and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2019

ISBN: 9781513508313

Keywords: Import price indexes, Purchasing power parity, Export price indexes, Price indexes, Real sector, Price Index, CPI, PPI, Scanner data, Big data

The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates....

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model »

Volume/Issue: 2019/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , Diego Cerdeiro , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318440.001

ISBN: 9781498318440

Keywords: Export restraints, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trade models, International trade agreements, general equilibrium, trade, tariffs, trade tensions, global value chains.

This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates eff...

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model1

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model1 »

Source: Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Volume/Issue: 2019/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , Diego Cerdeiro , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498318440

Keywords: Export restraints, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trade models, International trade agreements, general equilibrium, trade, tariffs, trade tensions, global value chains.

This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates eff...