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Ms. Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, and Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the status of Ukraine’s Eurobond held by the Russian Federation. The bond was acquired by Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF) pursuant to a decision by the Russian Government to provide assistance to Ukraine. In public statements at the time the bond was issued, Russia’s Finance Minister, Mr. Siluanov, explained that assistance was being provided via the NWF because the funds had not been appropriated in the federal budget, ruling out a direct intergovernmental credit. The IMF staff is of the view that the Eurobond is an official claim for the purposes of the IMF’s policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors.
Bertrand Candelon, Mr. Amadou N Sy, and Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.
Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, Mr. Christian B. Mulder, and Mr. Charalambos Christofides
This paper examines the relationship between adherence to international standards of good practice in policy-making and two key indicators of access to capital markets and the cost of this access: spreads and sovereign ratings. In contrast to other work, this study reviews a broad set of indicators for adherence to international standards. The estimations are conducted for emerging market economies, and pay particular attention to issues of persistence in spreads and ratings and nonlinearities in the relationships. The main finding confirms the expectation that standards are indeed relevant. Accounting standards and property rights are especially important for spreads, in addition to data transparency (SDDS subscription). Accounting standards and corruption are especially important in explaining ratings in addition to trade protectiveness (not a standard).