This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.
Ms. Claudia H Dziobek, Mr. Alberto F Jimenez de Lucio, and Mr. James A Chan
This note addresses the following main issues: • Statistical definitions of government (Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001) • Institutional structure of government and public sector • What is a precise definition of government and why it is relevant • Potential pitfalls of lacking a precise definition of government • Definitions of government in IMF-supported programs • Applications for fiscal rules and other fiscal policy design
Under the Fund’s safeguards policy introduced in 2000, assessments of central banks are carried out for countries seeking financing from the IMF. They are part of the Fund’s approach to prudent lending and complement the Fund’s other safeguards such as program design, conditionality, and access limits, to name a few. The assessments aim to provide reasonable assurance that governance and controls can protect Fund resources from misuse and guard against misreporting of monetary data used for program monitoring purposes.
IMF technical assistance provided by the Statistics Department--toward assisting IMF member countries in developing the ability to provide reliable and comparable economic and financial data on a timely basis to policymakers and markets--has increased more than fourfold over the past decade. This assistance has proven critical in countries building their statistical capacity so as to come into line with international data standards in an increasingly globalized and electronically interconnected world. Statistical Capacity Building: Case Studies and Lessons Learned presents four case studies drawn from experience in three countries in transition to the market, two of which were also in postconflict situations, in the 1990s and early 2000s: Cambodia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine. Issues of setting, institutional and statistical arrangements, strategies, and implementation are examined, and lessons learned.
The data dissemination module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an in-depth review of Ukraine’s statistical system. The report provides an assessment of Ukraine’s data dissemination practices in relation to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), and the quality of the data disseminated using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department. It also assesses data quality for the national accounts, consumer and producer prices, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.
Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, Mr. Christian B. Mulder, and Mr. Charalambos Christofides
This paper examines the relationship between adherence to international standards of good practice in policy-making and two key indicators of access to capital markets and the cost of this access: spreads and sovereign ratings. In contrast to other work, this study reviews a broad set of indicators for adherence to international standards. The estimations are conducted for emerging market economies, and pay particular attention to issues of persistence in spreads and ratings and nonlinearities in the relationships. The main finding confirms the expectation that standards are indeed relevant. Accounting standards and property rights are especially important for spreads, in addition to data transparency (SDDS subscription). Accounting standards and corruption are especially important in explaining ratings in addition to trade protectiveness (not a standard).
This paper looks at the progress in transition and the geographic diversification of trade, focusing on two issues--the degree of trade openness and trade integration--for a sample of countries in transition. It concludes that about half of the group of countries sampled are becoming as open as similar market economies, but that many others remain relatively closed. Geographic diversification (to the European Union) is found to be greater the closer is geographic proximity and the more advanced the country is with reforms. The analysis is then extended, in an illustrative way, to show how much larger would be the share of exports to the EU if structural reforms were more ambitious.