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Mr. Ralph Chami, Elorm Darkey, and Mr. Oral Williams
We use a unique data set for 115 countries, from 2000–18, and 5-year non-overlapping averages to explore the impact of technical assitance on revenue mobilization. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first such effort to determine a direct relationship between technical assistance and the improvement in tax revenues. The paper finds that technical assistance significantly and positively increases tax revenues. Both income per capita and openness were found to positively improve the tax ratio in line with findings in the literature. Dynamic estimations also uncovered a long-run relationship among technical assistance, income per capita, openness, and tax revenues. This result further underscores that it takes time to build capacity and institutional resilience.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Germany managed the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic relatively well thanks to an early and vigorous public health response. Nonetheless, unprecedented disruptions to economic and social activity caused a deep recession in the first half of 2020. The gradual easing of containment measures since late-April has led to a partial revival of growth, but in late-October a “lockdown light” was announced to counter a new wave of infections, and restrictions were further tightened in mid-December. Significant risks remain about the pace and extent of the recovery as the uncertain course of the epidemic continues to impact economic activity.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of North Macedonia focuses on income convergence and integration of North Macedonia with the European Union (EU). Based on the experience of other countries, joining the EU, which North Macedonia is aspiring to, has the potential to strengthen growth prospects. The macroeconomic indicators appear aligned with other countries at the time they started EU accession negotiations. The EU accession process constitutes a fundamental anchor for institutional reform momentum. Significant efforts to improve institutional quality in new member states took place in the years prior to EU accession to comply with Copenhagen criteria on stability of institutions, guaranteeing democracy and the rule of law, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU. The analysis presented in this paper shows further evidence of how opening of EU accession negotiations and of better quality of institutions, rule of law, and control of corruption can improve growth prospects.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Estonia examines impact of assessing competitiveness and exposure to shocks integrating global value chains (GVCs). This paper strengthens the analytical underpinnings of competitiveness assessments and exposure to shocks by incorporating GVCs. Standard real effective exchange rates (REER) indexes assume trade is only in final goods. However, like most European economies, Estonia is highly integrated into GVCs. This implies that assessments of competitiveness should consider trade in value added. Based on a structural model, the paper assesses competitiveness and exposure to trade shocks accounting for the GVC participation in Estonia. The analysis using a REER index considering the GVC architecture suggests potential competitiveness problems in Estonia. The paper also estimates the impact of overvaluation (and appreciation) of the GVC related REER measure on value added export and real GDP growth and finds observable effects. Further, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have important costs for value added produced in Estonia.