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Mr. Bernardin Akitoby, Mr. Larry Q Cui, Silvia Domit, Jingzhou Meng, Mr. Slavi T Slavov, Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat, and Hanqi Zhang
This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Finland’s public sector balance sheet. The public sector balance sheet approach expands analysis of public finances beyond government debt to also include government assets, public corporations, and pension liabilities. For Finland, it shows that static public sector net worth is negative at some 160 percent of GDP. This implies that Finland’s future fiscal balances and policies will have to be sufficiently strong to compensate, and also to address future spending pressures from rising health and long-term care. The intertemporal balance sheet shows that Finland’s current medium-term fiscal framework meets this criterion—but only if health and social services reform achieves the targeted savings in public spending during the 2020s. In light of numerous risks it would be prudent to use the present economic upswing to make early headway in rebuilding buffers. Finland has a track record of prudent fiscal policy. During good economic times, the authorities have run sizable fiscal surpluses.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the growth in Finland has turned tepidly positive again following a deep recession. GDP increased by 0.2 percent in 2015 driven by stronger private consumption and a rebound in investment. Although net export growth was weak, falling oil prices contributed to the nominal trade balance shifting into surplus, reducing the current account deficit. Better-than-expected fiscal performance brought the deficit back under the 3 percent Stability and Growth Pact limit in 2015. The recovery is likely to continue, but growth is set to remain slow at about 0.9 percent in 2016 and 1.1 percent in 2017. This outlook is subject to downside risks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Finland’s exports have suffered owing to the declines of Nokia and the paper industry, compounded by weak external demand, especially from the euro area and Russia. The current account and fiscal balances have deteriorated, with the 2014 fiscal deficit breaching the Stability and Growth Pact’s 3 percent of GDP criterion. A modest recovery is projected to begin in 2015 and gradually strengthen in 2016. However, in absence of further reforms, growth is likely to remain much lower than pre-crisis. Weaker-than-expected growth in key trade partners would be a drag on exports, and spillovers from an external financial shock would create tighter financial conditions, with negative effects on output.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Finland’s strong economic record has stalled. The economy has been in recession for three of the last five years, and unemployment is now more than 8 percent, with more people without work for longer. The shortfall in growth, coming at a time when peer economies saw GDP improve and unemployment fall, points to deeper structural problems. Exports suffered from the continued decline of the information and communications technology industry and falling demand for paper and pulp. The outlook is for a slow and fragile recovery, and weaker external demand could easily derail the upswing.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2013, Estonia’s recovery from the crisis continued but at a slower pace. Real GDP growth was 0.8 percent, with private consumption providing the main support, although net exports made a negative contribution. Inflation declined to about 3½ percent, but stayed above the euro average. Public finances remained strong, with a fiscal deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP and a gross public debt of 10 percent of GDP. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2014, rising toward expected potential growth of 3 to 3.5 percent in the medium term.
ASSAF RAZIN and EFRAIM SADKA

This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.

JEMMA DRIDI and KIMBERLY ZIESCHANG

This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.

EPHRAIM W. CHIRWA and MLACHILA MONTFORT

This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.

ROBERT P. FLOOD

This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.