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Mr. Balazs Csonto, Mr. Alejandro D Guerson, Ms. Alla Myrvoda, and Emefa Sewordor
This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
KEY ISSUES Background: Activity is slowly recovering after a cumulative decline of about 5 percent during 2008–10. Expansionary fiscal policies—largely to counteract the impact of the global slowdown and the two successive natural disasters—led to a deterioration in fiscal balances, with public debt up by about 10½ percent of GDP over this period. The fiscal deficit, however, is expected to narrow this year, largely reflecting cuts in capital spending. In the financial sector, non performing loans remain above prudential guidelines; provisioning and profitability are low; and supervision remains weak. Policy Challenges: Further fiscal consolidation—including by rebalancing government expenditure toward growth and employment generating public sector projects—is required to ensure medium-term sustained growth as well as keep public sector debt on a downward trajectory. In this regard, improving the efficiency of revenue collection and reducing current spending—especially on the wage bill, which is high relative to revenues—will be crucial to allow the government to maneuver fiscal policy. Financial sector weaknesses also need to be addressed, including through strengthening of supervisory and regulatory standards, to promote effective financial intermediation that supports private sector growth. Structural reforms, including infrastructure enhancements and labor market reforms are critical to improve competitiveness and ensure medium-term growth and current account sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Dominica has faced two major challenges during the past two decades: weak competitiveness and low potential growth. In addition to these economic challenges, the country has been facing frequent natural disasters. Growth is expected to pick up gradually. The financial system is highly liquid but monetary conditions have not eased. The external position is improving on strong service receipts. Fiscal policy is reaching its limit in terms of its ability to support economic activity. The balance of risks to the fiscal outlook is broadly balanced.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the authorities outlined a two-stage strategy and explained the need for requesting the cancellation of Stand-By Arrangement and the approval of a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF). The objective of the three-year program is to review growth by addressing the debt overhang and structural weaknesses. The underlying concept of fiscal reform is to support the achievement of the medium-term primary surplus target. The authorities will implement a number of initiatives to strengthen the investment climate in the economy.
Ms. Esther C Suss, Mr. Oral Williams, and Mr. Chandima Mendis
The paper reviews the development of offshore financial activities in the English-speaking Caribbean islands and takes stock of the size and status of these sectors today. In view of the heightened concerns of the international community about money laundering, the costs and risks to countries of having or establishing offshore sectors have risen considerably.