Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on
the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where
oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery
are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and
urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP
which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for
non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.
This paper assesses the impact of a disruption to capital inflows by examining past episodes of capital inflows in New Zealand and other countries. It also reviews the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM), which is used to provide some estimates of the equilibrium relationship between New Zealand’s real effective exchange rate and real commodity prices. The analysis also suggests that permanent changes in non-energy commodity prices can have a significant impact on New Zealand’s equilibrium exchange rate.