Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 30 items for :

  • Real Estate x
Clear All
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper assesses the effectiveness of lending restriction measures, such as loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income ratios, in affecting developments in house prices and credit. We use data on 99 lending standard restrictions implemented in 28 EU countries over 1990–2018. The results suggest that lending restriction measures are generally effective in curbing house prices and credit. However, the impact is delayed and reaches its peak only after three years. In addition, the impact is asymmetric, with tightening measures having weaker association with target variables compared to loosening measures. The association is stronger in countries outside of euro area and for legally-binding measures and measures involving sanctions. The results have practical implications for macroprudential authorities.
Luis I. Jacome H. and Ms. Srobona Mitra
There is increasing interest in loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits as many countries face a new round of rising house prices. Yet, very little is known on how these regulatory instruments work in practice. This paper contributes to fill this gap by looking closely at their use and effectiveness in six economies—Brazil, Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, and Romania. Insights include: rapid growth in high-LTV loans with long maturities or in the number of borrowers with multiple mortgages can be signs of build up in systemic risk; monitoring nonperforming loans by loan characteristics can help in calibrating changes in the LTV and DTI limits; as leakages are almost inevitable, countries strive to address them at an early stage; and, in most cases, LTVs and DTIs were effective in reducing loan-growth and improving debt-servicing performances of borrowers, but not always in curbing house price growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the performance of Uruguay’s exports, external balances, and relative price movements over the past decade and applies the IMF’s standard external sector assessment tools to Uruguay. The results indicate that Uruguay has made important strides in export performance, including expanding markets shares over the past decade, driven by trade competitiveness gains. The current account deficit has remained well contained and more than fully financed by foreign direct investment over the past decade, notwithstanding external shocks. At the same time, the real exchange rate has appreciated strongly in recent years. Standard IMF equilibrium real exchange rate valuation models also suggest that the Uruguayan peso is slightly stronger than its equilibrium level.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper analyzes pace of economic growth for Brazil. Moderating activity and stubbornly elevated inflation since 2010 have led to a reevaluation of Brazil’s long-term potential growth rate. Growth accounting suggests that potential growth is probably lower than was widely assumed in recent years and now stands at about 3½ percent. The demographic dividend of a rapidly expanding labor force is fading and further structural declines in unemployment are likely to be limited. Potential growth will rely more on the pace of capital deepening and productivity growth. Lifting both may require successful implementation of the infrastructure investment program, higher domestic saving, and structural reforms.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes pace of economic growth for Brazil. Moderating activity and stubbornly elevated inflation since 2010 have led to a reevaluation of Brazil’s long-term potential growth rate. Growth accounting suggests that potential growth is probably lower than was widely assumed in recent years and now stands at about 3½ percent. The demographic dividend of a rapidly expanding labor force is fading and further structural declines in unemployment are likely to be limited. Potential growth will rely more on the pace of capital deepening and productivity growth. Lifting both may require successful implementation of the infrastructure investment program, higher domestic saving, and structural reforms.
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides background material to support the Board paper on the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies. It analyzes the scope for and evidence on interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies. It first reviews a recent conceptual literature on interactive effects that arise when both macroprudential and monetary policy are employed. It goes on to explore the “side effects” of monetary policy on financial stability and their implications for macroprudential policy. It finally addresses the strength of possible effects of macroprudential policies on output and price stability, and draws out implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
Mr. Stijn Claessens

Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

A pesar del reciente deterioro del entorno económico mundial, las proyecciones para la región indican tan solo un debilitamiento moderado de las perspectivas. En la edición de octubre de 2011 de Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas, el Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental advierte, sin embargo, que los riesgos a la baja son severos. Una fuerte desaceleración en Asia, provocada, por ejemplo, por una recesión en las economías avanzadas, podría afectar a los precios de las materias primas, lo que tendría efectos negativos en los países exportadores de materias primas de América Latina. Dado que la política monetaria a nivel mundial probablemente seguirá siendo laxa, los flujos de capitales podrían exacerbar el sobrecalentamiento y agudizar las vulnerabilidades en los mercados emergentes. Las perspectivas para los países que mantienen fuertes vínculos de comercio con Estados Unidos son un poco menos alentadoras. Estos países deberían dar prioridad a la reducción de la deuda pública. Si bien gran parte de la región del Caribe se está recuperando de una recesión prolongada, las perspectivas siguen estando limitadas por los altos niveles de deuda y los débiles flujos de turismo. En esta edición se señala que las políticas económicas pueden desempeñar un papel importante en mitigar el impacto económico de estos shocks y se subraya la necesidad de recomponer los márgenes de maniobra para la aplicación de políticas anticíclicas en el futuro.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt. Although much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows. This issue finds that policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks, and underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.