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Céline Allard

Abstract

La dynamique de croissance en Afrique subsaharienne demeure fragile, ce qui représente une rupture par rapport à la rapide expansion qui avait été enregistrée depuis le début du millénaire. L’année 2016 a été difficile pour de nombreux pays et la croissance régionale est descendue à 1,4 %, le niveau le plus faible depuis plus de deux décennies. La plupart des exportateurs de pétrole ont été en récession et la conjoncture est restée difficile dans les autres pays riches en ressources naturelles. En revanche, dans les pays pauvres en ressources naturelles la croissance a continué d’être robuste. Grâce à une modeste reprise, la croissance devrait se situer à environ 2,6 % en 2017, niveau toutefois inférieur à celui des tendances passées et trop faible pour remettre l’Afrique subsaharienne sur la voie de l’amélioration des niveaux de vie. La région continue d’offrir un énorme potentiel de croissance, mais la détérioration des perspectives globales tient en partie au caractère insuffisant des ajustements opérés par les pouvoirs publics. Pour mettre en valeur ce potentiel, la région devra mener des politiques saines et avisées qui lui permettront de faire redémarrer le moteur de la croissance.

Céline Allard

Abstract

Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

La croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne est tombée en 2015 à son plus bas niveau depuis quinze ans, avec toutefois une grande disparité entre les pays de la région. La chute des cours des produits de base de ces dernières années a ébranlé beaucoup des plus grands pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, dont des pays exportateurs de pétrole tels que l'Angola et le Nigéria, et d'autres produits exportateurs de produits de base, tels que le Ghana, l'Afrique du Sud et la Zambie. La baisse des cours pétroliers a toutefois permis à d'autres pays de maintenir une croissance vigoureuse, dont le Kenya et le Sénégal. Dans de nombreux pays, il est urgent et essentiel de prendre des mesures robustes face aux chocs sur les termes de l'échange. Le rapport aborde également la vulnérabilité de l'Afrique subsaharienne face aux chocs sur les prix de base et note les avancées spectaculaires en matière de développement du secteur financier, et plus particulièrement dans le domaine des services financiers mobiles.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

La chute des cours du pétrole et d'autres produits de base a nui à l'Afrique subsaharienne. La région devrait toutefois connaître une année supplémentaire de bons résultats économiques. La croissance devrait toutefois rester atone en Afrique du Sud, tandis qu'en Guinée, au Libéria et en Sierra Leone, l'épidémie d'Ebola continue d'avoir de lourdes conséquences économiques et sociales. Ce rapport examine également le profit que l'Afrique subsaharienne pourrait tirer du dividende démographique causé par une hausse sans précédent de la population en âge de travailler et étudie le niveau d'intégration de la région dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices have adversely impacted sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the region is projected to register another year of solid economic performance. In South Africa, however, growth is expected to remain lackluster, while in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone the Ebola outbreak continues to exact a heavy economic and social toll. This report also considers how sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend from an unprecedented increase in the working age population, as well as the strength of the region's integration into global value chains.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

This is the 64th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on the operation of foreign exchange markets and controls on international trade. It describes controls on capital transactions and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures. In addition, it reports on exchange measures imposed by member countries for security reasons. A single table provides a snapshot of the exchange and trade systems of all IMF member countries. The Overview describes in detail how the general trend toward foreign exchange liberalization continued during 2012, alongside a strengthening of the financial sector regulatory framework. The AREAER is available in several formats. The Overview in print and online, and the detailed information for each of the 191 member countries and territories is included on a CD that accompanies the printed Overview and in an online database, AREAER Online. In addition to the information on the exchange and trade system of IMF member countries in 2012, AREAER Online contains historical data published in previous issues of the AREAER. It is searchable by year, country, and category of measure and allows cross country comparisons for time series.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.