Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Ms. Elena Loukoianova
The paper examines the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures (UMPMs)
implemented since 2008 in the United States, the United Kingdom, Euro area and Japan—
the Systemic Four—on global monetary and liquidity conditions. Overall, the results show
positive significant relationships. However, there are differences in the impact of the
UMPMs of individual S4 countries on these conditions in other countries. UMPMs of the
Bank of Japan have positive association with global liquidity but negative association with
securities issuance. The quantitative easing (QE) of the Bank of England has the opposite
association. Results for the quantitative easing measures of the United States Federal
Reserve System (U.S. Fed) and the ECB UMPMs are more mixed.
A mechanism is proposed that aims to reduce the risk of a banking sector liquidity crisis—which is a quintessentially systemic event and thus the object of macroprudential policy—and moderate the effects of a crisis should one occur. The instrument would give banks more incentive to build up buffers of systemically liquid assets as a proportion of their total liabilities, yet these buffers would be usable in times of stress. The modalities of the instrument are considered with a view to making it effective, efficient, and robust.
While fiscal conditions remain healthier than in advanced economies, emerging economies continue to be exposed to negative spillovers if global conditions were to become less favorable. This paper finds that domestic bond yields in emerging economies are heavily influenced by two international factors: global risk appetite and global liquidity. Using a novel approach, the analysis goes on to show that the vulnerability of emerging economies to these factors is not uniform but rather depends on country specific characteristics, namely fiscal fundamentals, financial sector openness and the external current account balance.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on exchange rate volatility in Russian Federation. Russia has seen an increase in exchange rate volatility during the past few years compared with the period before the global financial crisis, as the authorities have chosen to allow a higher degree of ruble exchange rate flexibility in preparation for the adoption of IT. The average of the 12-month coefficient of variation of the ruble/dollar exchange rate has also increased from 2.2 percent in December 2005–September 2008 to about 3.7 percent in March 2010–June 2013.
Mr. Udaibir S Das, Miss Yinqiu Lu, Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, and Iva Petrova
Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the current generation of sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approaches, including objectives, definitions of relevant assets and liabilities, and methodologies used in obtaining optimal SALM outcomes. These elements are used in developing an analytical SALM framework which could become an operational instrument in formulating asset management and debtor liability management strategies at the sovereign level. From a portfolio perspective, the SALM approach could help detect direct and derived sovereign risk exposures. It allows analyzing the financial characteristics of the balance sheet, identifying sources of costs and risks, and quantifying the correlations among these sources of risk. The paper also outlines institutional requirements in implementing an SALM framework and seeks to lay the ground for further policy and analytical work on this topic.
This paper constructs new indicators of liquidity for equity, bond and money markets in major advanced and emerging market countries, documents their evolution and comovements, and assesses the extent to which such measures are determinants of selected spreads and proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities. Three main results obtain. First, there is evidence of an historical increase in market liquidity since the early 1990s, in part as a result of advances in international financial integration, but markets have been increasingly exposed to global systemic liquidity shocks. Second, liquidity indicators appear to be important determinants of bond spreads in advanced economies and EMBI spreads in emerging markets. Third, improvements in market liquidity have significant real effects, as liquidity indicators have a significant positive impact on proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities.
In episodes of significant banking distress or perceived systemic risk to the financial system, policymakers have often opted for issuing blanket guarantees on bank liabilities to stop or avoid widespread bank runs. In theory, blanket guarantees can prevent bank runs if they are credible. However, guarantee could add substantial fiscal costs to bank restructuring programs and may increase moral hazard going forward. Using a sample of 42 episodes of banking crises, this paper finds that blanket guarantees are successful in reducing liquidity pressures on banks arising from deposit withdrawals. However, banks' foreign liabilities appear virtually irresponsive to blanket guarantees. Furthermore, guarantees tend to be fiscally costly, though this positive association arises in large part because guarantees tend to be employed in conjunction with extensive liquidity support and when crises are severe.
A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market conditions (including funding liquidity, market liquidity, as well as credit and volatility risks), contagion effects, and idiosyncratic factors. While idiosyncratic factors explain a large amount of the changes in bond spreads over the sample, global market risk factors are fundamental driving forces during periods of stress. The relative importance of the different risk factors changes substantially depending on the crisis episode. Contagion from emerging markets becomes small or non-existent when global financial market risks explicitly are taken into account.
The Board completed its last review of access policy in February 2008 (2008 Access Policy Review). At that time, while some Directors saw the need for an increase in the limits on normal access to Fund resources, most Directors supported maintaining the access limits in the credit tranches and under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the separate overall limits on access to resources in the General Resources Account (GRA) at the present level of 100 percent of quota on an annual basis and 300 percent on a cumulative basis. During the 2008 Spring Meetings, the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) encouraged the Executive Board to consider raising access limits. In doing so, the IMFC recognized that emerging market and developing countries are not immune to a broadening of the problems in financial markets and looked forward to reviewing progress at its next meeting. A fresh look at access limits is warranted in light of the broader review of the Fund’s lending framework which is underway, and to take account of the April 28, 2008 agreement on a second round of ad hoc quota increases under the quota and voice reform.
This paper reviews the Fund’s access policy under its main financing facilities in the General Resources Account (GRA) and under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). It responds to the Board’s request for a periodic review of the access policy, that is, the rules and practices that govern the amount of financing the Fund makes available to its members.