Dennis Essers, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, and Evgenia Pugacheva
We study the determinants of new and repeated research collaborations, drawing on the co-authorship network of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Working Papers series. Being an outlet where authors express their views on topics of interest, and given that IMF staff is not subject to the “publish-or-perish” conditions of the academia, the IMF Working Papers series constitutes an appropriate testing ground to examine the endogenous nature of co-authorship formation. We show that the co-authorship network is characterized by many authors with few direct co-authors, yet indirectly connected to each other through short co-authorship chains. We find that a shorter distance in the co-authorship network is key for starting research collaborations. Also, higher research productivity, being employed in the same department, and having citizenship of the same region help to start and repeat collaborations. Furthermore, authors with different co-authorship network sizes are more likely to collaborate, possibly reflecting synergies between senior and junior staff members.
Amine Hammadi, Marshall Mills, Nelson Sobrinho, Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, and Ricardo Velloso
Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) tend to lag those in most other regions in terms of
governance and perceptions of corruption. Weak governance undermines economic
performance through various channels, including deficiencies in government functions and
distortions to economic incentives. It thus stands to reason that SSA countries could
strengthen their economic performance by improving governance and reducing corruption.
This paper estimates that strengthening governance and mitigating corruption in the region
could be associated with large growth dividends in the long run. While the process would
take considerable time and effort, moving the average SSA country governance level to the
global average could increase the region’s GDP per capita growth by about 1-2 percentage
This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affect
government revenue and expenditure during the period 1970–2013 using a panel dataset on
153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative effect on tax revenue
performance, after controlling for economic and institutional factors. This effect is also not
robust to alternative specifications and empirical strategies. On the other hand, we find strong
evidence that terrorism is associated with an increase in military spending as a percent of GDP
(and a share of total government expenditure). Our estimations reveal that this impact is
greater when terrorist attacks are frequent and result in a large number of fatalities. Empirical
findings also support the view that public finances in developing and low-income countries
are more vulnerable to terrorism than those in countries that are richer and diversified.
Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.
The Savings Working Group in New Zealand presented recommendations in February 2011, and suggested raising national saving by 2–3 percent of GDP. The increase in net public saving in the country explains part of the reason for lower net private saving in New Zealand. Net public saving of the country is about 3 percent of GDP above the average of advanced countries for the past 15 years. Financial liberalization also appears to have played a role in saving behavior.
This Selected Issues paper for Vietnam reports that the framework for policy lending in Vietnam, in conjunction with the active consideration of proposals to enhance the operational autonomy of policy-lending institutions, poses significant risks. The current framework does not adequately address common governance issues related to state involvement in investment decisions, and is insufficient to ensure the quality of investment. Recommended policy actions include removing residual policy lending from commercial banks, and improving prudential regulations and supervision of the Development Assistance Fund and local development funds well before they are granted any significant autonomy.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek and Mr. Julian Berengaut
The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.
Should a closed economy open its trade to all countries or limit itself to participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs)? Based on time-series evidence for a data set for 1950-92, this paper estimates and compares the growth performance of countries that liberalized broadly and those that joined an RTA. The comparisons show that economies grew faster after broad liberalization, both in the short and long run, but slower after participation in an RTA. Economies also had higher investment shares after broad liberalization, but lower ones after joining an RTA. The policy implications support broad liberalization.