Sandile Hlatshwayo, Anne Oeking, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, David Corvino, Ananya Shukla, and Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it—and its effects—inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents’ assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts.
This report summarizes the activities of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) since the 2011 Annual Meetings. In this period, the IEO has advanced work on three ongoing evaluations: International Reserves: IMF Advice and Country Perspectives, The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor, and Learning from Experience at the IMF: An IEO Assessment of Self-Evaluation Systems. The IEO expects to submit these evaluations to the Executive Board over the course of the year. The IEO has begun consultations on topics for future evaluations and will present a tentative work program to the Executive Board for review in due course.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This paper examines how major efficiency gains and improved effectiveness were simultaneously achieved at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand over a five-year period. It identifies the business management concepts that were used to transform the organization, outlines how they were applied, and evaluates the benefits obtained. The paper concludes that substantial real efficiency gains were achieved, while effectiveness was maintained or enhanced. Looking more widely, the business management concepts used to achieve these benefits could be applied to other central banks.