This Selected Issues paper provides a systematic assessment of Moldova’s governance and institutional frameworks. It follows guidelines approved by the IMF executive board, which were developed to deliver systematic and even-handed analysis on macroeconomically critical governance and institutional vulnerabilities. This paper also focuses on seven key areas for IMF engagement: corruption, rule of law, regulatory framework, fiscal governance, financial sector oversight, anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism, and central bank governance. The analysis is based on internationally comparable data, diagnosis from IMF technical assistance reports, as well as other expert assessments. Strengthening the judiciary and rule of law and accelerating state-owned enterprises (SOE) reform are clear priorities. The widespread nature of governance vulnerabilities and institutional weaknesses in Moldova, combined with capacity constraints, creates challenges for policy formulation and prioritization. Policy efforts should therefore focus on strengthening rule of law and reforming Moldova’s judiciary system, as well as building capacity and increasing the autonomy of key institutions. Steadfast SOE reform would foster competition, investment, and productivity, while reducing fiscal risks.
Global growth remains strong. The recovery has created jobs and increased incomes. But growth momentum is moderating. Previously identified risks have partly materialized or have become more pronounced. A rapid reversal in financial market conditions, ten years after the global financial crisis, could again expose debt vulnerabilities at a time when many countries have more limited policy space. The window of opportunity to guard against risks and raise medium-term growth prospects is narrowing. Now is the time for policymakers to act to rebuild policy space, strengthen resilience, and implement structural reforms for the benefit of all. Waning support for multilateralism is fueling policy uncertainty. However, improved global cooperation is precisely what is needed to boost inclusive growth by modernizing the trade system, reducing excess global imbalances, improving debt dynamics, and leveraging technology. We will continue to review our policies and strategies to enhance Fund advice and support multilateralism. This includes surveillance, program conditionality, capacity development, debt limits, and anti-money laundering and the combatting of terrorism financing.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek and Mr. Julian Berengaut
The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.