International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper provides background for a further round of discussions on the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas (hereafter 15th Review). The paper builds on work presented in previous staff papers and Directors’ views expressed in three meetings of the Committee of the Whole in September 2017 and February 2018. No proposals are presented at this stage, pending further Board guidance on possible approaches to narrowing the current differences of views.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that San Marino’s economy rebounded in 2016, on the back of recovering domestic demand and important gains in employment. However, the growth momentum slowed in 2017 amid financial sector uncertainties around a sizable loss at the largest bank and a closure of a small bank. Only moderate growth is projected in the near and medium term. The economy is projected to grow at 1.3 percent in 2018, driven by domestic demand. Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, and an externally financed investment project will add a significant boost to investment, which otherwise lacks support from the deleveraging banking sector.
A moderate recovery has set in, supported by an increasing number of new firms and rising employment. Fiscal deficits are contained and some efforts are underway to assess and better address test banking sector weaknesses. However, the challenges of restoring financial stability, creating fiscal space, and achieving sustainable growth remain considerable.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the slow recovery of San Marino’s economy after a deep recession following a series of financial sector shocks. Growth resumed in 2015 and accelerated in 2016 to an estimated 1 percent, thanks to stronger domestic and external demand. Moderate growth is expected in the near and medium term. GDP growth is projected to reach 1.3 percent in the medium term, driven by continued expansion in nonfinancial industries and services. However, following the current trend, the pace of growth would not be strong enough to bring output to precrisis levels over the next five years as risks remain tilted to the downside.
Context: A subdued recovery has started to settle in. However, downside risks persist. San Marino's economy remains in transition following the implosion of its offshore banking model in the aftermath of the global crisis, resulting in the loss of a third of output. Challenges: Lay foundations for sustainable growth strengthening the banking system, realigning fiscal policy with new economic realities, and improving flexibility to enable the diversification of economic activity.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of San Marino highlights global crisis and tense relations with Italy, which triggered a 30 percent GDP contraction since 2008 and a sea change in San Marino’s off-shore banking model. High liquidity in the system allowed banks to withstand the shock to deposits. Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino, the largest bank, has required 13 percent of GDP in public support. The deep recession and bank recapitalization costs are weighing heavily on public finances.