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Michal Andrle and Patrick Blagrave
We assess the degree of cross-market price discrepancy (a proxy for market integration), its evolution over time, and proximate determinants, using monthly price data for 21 agricultural goods and 60 markets in India. Econometric analysis shows that cross-market price integration is positively associated with the level of transportation infrastructure, and distance between market pairs. There is no robust evidence that price integration has increased in recent years, suggesting that any positive effects of recent policy initiatives are either small, outweighed by the identified determinants of integration, or yet to come.
Sanjay Kalra
The paper characterizes trade exposure and regional integration in six ASEAN economies during 1997-2008. For this, the paper uses the 2000 Asian Input Output Tables which are extrapolated using National Income Accounts and COMTRADE data. On the demand side, the paper shows that the level and geographical nature of external exposure varies across the ASEANs, and has changed over time. In particular, there was a shift in the external demand exposure of ASEANs from mature markets, including the United States, to China and ROW. In addition, the share of China in East Asia’s final demand, especially investment, rose sharply while that of Japan fell. On the supply side, the paper documents the rise of China into a “global factory” and the steady shift in regional production and integration from Japan and the United States to China.
Jean-François Ruhashyankiko
This paper explores the link between exchange rate volatility of European currencies and economic performance of several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The elimination of intra euro-zone exchange rate volatility resulting from the introduction of the euro is estimated to affect the production structure of MENA economies and shift their exports from manufacturing to agriculture and services. At the country and industry levels, the impact of the euro is more striking in countries with higher shares of manufacturing and higher shares of exports to the euro zone.
Uwe Eiteljörge and Mr. Clinton R. Shiells
This paper attempts to assess the incremental external financing requirements occasioned by changes in world food prices, due to implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, for a sample of 57 developing countries. Based on estimates of changes in food prices due to the Round obtained in previous studies, and on detailed data on food trade by country and commodity, the present study shows that the increase in net food import costs are likely to be smaller than 4 percent of net food imports over a period of six years for the countries considered, although for some of the larger trading nations the effect may exceed US$10 million.